March Premium Insights: Jobs & Inflation

Good afternoon, Insiders! Welcome to the first macro update of February.
In today’s note, we’ll cover some of the latest economic data that’s shaking up the market, promising trends in stocks, and more.

The market seems to be stuck at a crossroads as we head into the weekend. This week, we saw lots of up-and-down moves, but they were relatively minor in scale. There seems to be a battle brewing between the bulls and the bears in light of February’s stronger-than-expected CPI data.

January’s report was also a tad hotter than expected, but the market shook it off pretty quickly. However, after February’s report, concerns are building that it’s more than a momentary phenomenon, and the growing stand-off between perspectives has been evident in this week’s trading action.

With February data showing both stronger-than-expected jobs and inflation figures, the path ahead for rate cuts is uncertain at best. If we see improvements within the next couple of months, we believe a June cut could still be on the table.

Recent comments indicate the Fed is eager to cut rates and is willing to overlook sub-optimal data to get there. We’ll have to wait to see how things develop over the next few months, but, for now, the path forward is cloudy at best.

Without further ado, let’s dive into this month’s report.

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