This group gives you three very different setups. One business is excellent but already priced like it cannot miss, one platform is finally showing better ad momentum, and one consumer software name is sacrificing near-term growth to build a stronger user base. We’ll break down which stock to hold, which to buy, and where to start small.
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Futures at a Glance📈
Futures are bouncing after Monday’s pullback, as traders try to look through the latest Middle East flare-up and focus on resilient earnings underneath the noise. Oil is still part of the story, but this morning the market feels more like a cautious reset than a full panic.
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What to Watch
Earnings (Premarket):
• Shopify Inc. [SHOP]
• Eaton Corporation, PLC [ETN]
• Pfizer, Inc. [PFE]
• Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA [BUD]
• Duke Energy Corporation [DUK]
• KKR & Co. Inc. [KKR]
• Cummins Inc. [CMI]
Earnings (Aftermarket):
• Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. [AMD]
• Arista Networks, Inc. [ANET]
Economic Reports:
• U.S. trade balance (March): 8:30 am
• S&P final U.S. services PMI (April): 9:45 am
• Job openings (March): 10:00 am
• New home sales (delayed report) (Feb.): 10:00 am
• New home sales (March): 10:00 am
• ISM services (April): 10:00 am
Fed Speakers:
• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech: 10:00 am
• Fed Governor Michael Barr speech: 12:30 pm
Elite Trade Club Insider
One Energy Insider Sold Near The Highs. One Shipping Insider Kept Buying.
A director at an oilfield services name sold more than $4.6 million after the stock more than doubled over the past year, while a maritime insider bought shares across three straight sessions near the stock’s own 52-week high.
Most readers will see two commodity-linked stocks. Insider readers will see the split between harvesting a huge run and still adding capital near strength.
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Data Analytics & Defense AI
Palantir Technologies Delivers Huge Growth, but the Valuation Still Demands Perfection
Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: PLTR) put up the kind of numbers that explain why investors still treat it like one of the premier AI software names. First-quarter revenue jumped 85% to $1.63 billion, beating the $1.54 billion estimate, while adjusted EPS of $0.33 topped expectations for $0.28.
The company also raised its full-year revenue forecast to $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion, up from the prior $7.18 billion to $7.20 billion range.
The growth is coming from the right places. U.S. government revenue rose 84% to $687 million, while U.S. commercial revenue surged 133% to $595 million.
That mix matters because Palantir is no longer just a defense and intelligence contractor with a commercial side story. It is turning into a broader operating system for AI deployment across government and enterprise customers.
The market’s hesitation makes sense too. PLTR trades at roughly 230x earnings, which leaves no room for sloppy execution. Expenses are also expected to rise as the company invests in product development and elite technical talent. The business is excellent, but the stock is priced like excellence is already guaranteed.
My Take For You: Palantir’s growth is real, and the raised forecast makes the bull case stronger. The problem is not the business. It is the price investors are being asked to pay for it.
My Verdict: Hold this, don’t chase it. The risk is that even strong growth fails to support a 230x earnings multiple if spending ramps faster than expected.
Digital Advertising
Pinterest Finally Gives Investors a Cleaner Ad Recovery Setup
Pinterest Inc (NYSE: PINS) gave investors the kind of update they have been waiting for. The company guided second-quarter revenue to $1.13 billion to $1.15 billion, above the $1.11 billion estimate, and the stock jumped about 15% after hours. That reaction makes sense because Pinterest has been stuck in the penalty box while larger ad platforms grabbed more attention.
The important shift is that AI-powered advertising tools are starting to matter. Pinterest has been investing in its Performance+ ad suite, which helps automate creative production and improve targeting.
That is helping the company pull more spending from small and mid-sized businesses, even as some large advertisers remain cautious because of tariffs and geopolitical cost pressure. Monthly active users also reached 631 million, up from 570 million a year ago.
There is also a capital return angle. Elliott’s fresh $1 billion stake and support for the company’s $3.5 billion buyback program add pressure on management to execute and keep the stockholder story clean. That does not fix everything, but it gives the turnaround more structure.
My Take For You: Pinterest is starting to look like a real ad recovery story again. The user base is growing, guidance is better than expected, and AI tools are helping the platform compete more effectively.
My Verdict: Buy this. The risk is that small-business ad spending weakens if tariffs and macro pressure start hitting budgets harder.
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Consumer Software
Duolingo Is Choosing Users Over Near-Term Monetization, and the Market Hates the Tradeoff
Duolingo Inc (NASDAQ: DUOL) beat the quarter, but the stock sold off because management is asking investors to think past the next few quarters.
Revenue came in at $292 million, above the $288.5 million estimate, while bookings reached $308.5 million, ahead of the $301.7 million estimate. Daily active users rose 21% to 56.5 million, and paid subscribers increased 21% to 12.5 million.
Those are solid operating numbers. The problem is the outlook. Management expects bookings growth of about 10.5% for the year and signaled a slower second quarter before improvement later in 2026.
Duolingo is deliberately prioritizing engagement, speaking features, AI tools, and retention over near-term monetization. That may be the right long-term call, but the stock market does not usually reward slower bookings growth with patience.
The stock is already down nearly 78% over the past year, so the valuation story is very different from what it used to be. At about 12.9x earnings, Duolingo is no longer priced like a flawless growth machine. The question is whether the company can turn its larger user base into faster monetization again in 2027 and beyond.
My Take For You: Duolingo’s user engine is still working, but management just told investors the payoff will take longer. That makes this a recovery story, not a momentum story.
My Verdict: Start a small position here. The risk is that bookings growth keeps slowing before the engagement investments show up in revenue.
Trivia: What was Saudi Aramco's net profit in 2022 — the most profitable year ever recorded by any company in history?
Movers and Shakers
Sterling Infrastructure [STRL]: Premarket Move: +22%
Sterling is ripping because the quarter was a monster. EPS came in at $3.59 versus $2.01 expected, sales hit $825.7 million versus $603.6 million, and management raised full-year guidance above estimates. That is not a small beat. That is a full reset higher.
The stock is expensive after a 218% one-year run, but numbers like this explain why investors keep paying up.
My Take: Buy the pullback, not the opening spike. Sterling is still a winner, but after a 22% premarket jump, patience beats chasing.
Firefly Aerospace [FLY]: Premarket Move: +9%
Firefly is higher because investors are focusing on growth, not the loss. Revenue hit a record $80.9 million, up 44.7% year over year, and 2026 revenue guidance remains $420 million to $450 million. Moon lander milestones, launch demand, and AI-enabled defense work are keeping the story alive.
The miss was ugly, though. EPS came in at -$0.61 versus -$0.30 expected, and operating losses widened to $95.7 million.
My Take: Trade it, but do not own it blindly. The growth story is strong, but the losses are still too big to treat this like a clean long-term buy.
GeneDx [WGS]: Premarket Move: -41%
GeneDx is getting crushed because the financial miss overwhelmed the volume story. Revenue came in at $102.3 million versus $114 million expected, and EPS was -$0.28 versus -$0.01 expected. Even with exome and genome test volume up 34%, reimbursement pressure hit the quarter hard.
That is the problem. If volume growth does not translate cleanly into revenue and earnings, the market stops rewarding the story.
My Take: Stay away for now. A 41% drop looks tempting, but this is not buyable until reimbursement pressure stabilizes.
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Everything Else
📘 Dividend compounders are drawing renewed interest, as investors look for durable stocks that can keep rewarding shareholders through recessions, inflation spikes, and market swings.
🕊️ The UAE is pushing for a broader Iran ceasefire, as regional leaders look for a way to contain the conflict.
✈️ American’s pilots union chief said United’s merger idea showed bold vision, keeping airline consolidation talk alive.
🏦 Australia’s central bank delivered a rate hike, showing inflation is still forcing some policymakers to stay aggressive.
🏭 Samsung Electronics’ board chairman urged the union to resolve pay disputes, as labor tensions remain a risk for the chip giant.
🍎 Apple is reportedly exploring whether Intel and Samsung can help build its main device chips in the U.S.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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