Ceasefire Optimism, Soft PPI, and Morgan Stanley Says the War Lows Are In

Two sessions. Five weeks of war damage, gone. The S&P is back, and Tuesday built on that momentum with soft inflation data, resuming Iran peace talks, and a set of company-specific stories that had nothing to do with the Strait of Hormuz. 

Pull up today’s edition because the winners and losers list is worth your full attention.

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Stocks rose for a third straight session today as the White House confirmed a second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations is under discussion, and March PPI came in at just 0.5% against an expected 1.1%, giving traders a fresh inflation signal to work with.

Tech led again: Oracle gained another 5%, building on its 12% Monday surge. NVIDIA and Palantir both climbed, and the semiconductor ETF (SOXX) hit a new all-time high.

Earnings season is now doing its own work alongside the macro: JPMorgan beat Q1 estimates, and BlackRock gained 4% on strong results, while Wells Fargo disappointed and CarMax posted a $120.7 million quarterly loss despite adjusted earnings that beat the Street.

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is buying Globalstar in an $11.57 billion deal, and this is not just another acquisition. It is a direct step into the satellite internet race, where scale, speed, and coverage decide everything.

This move puts Amazon much deeper into a space it has been building toward for years.

Controlling the Next Layer of the Internet

Amazon already dominates cloud infrastructure through AWS, but satellite networks unlock something different. They extend connectivity beyond cities and towers into places where traditional networks cannot reach.

If you zoom out, this is Amazon trying to own not just the internet, but how the internet reaches people globally.

The Strategy Is Getting Clearer

Globalstar brings satellite assets and direct-to-device technology that allows phones to connect without relying on cell towers. That capability fits perfectly into a future where connectivity is expected everywhere, not just where infrastructure exists.

This is where your perspective shifts, because Amazon is not experimenting anymore; it is building a system that connects devices directly from space.

The Competitive Line Is Now Drawn

This move puts Amazon more directly against SpaceX and its Starlink network. The difference is that Amazon is combining satellites with its broader ecosystem, including cloud, devices, and services.

That combination creates a much wider playing field than just internet access. What stands out to you is the scale of intent behind this deal. Amazon is not entering quietly; it is committing serious capital to become a major player in global connectivity.

Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) just secured a $1.9 billion Pentagon contract running ten years to continue training and maintenance programs for the C-130J aircraft. This is a sole-source agreement, meaning no other company is competing for the work.

Lockheed will provide everything from training devices to engineering support. The deal also expands coverage to include the Navy Reserve and Coast Guard. Ten years of guaranteed revenue with zero competition is not a contract. It is a moat.

The C-130J Is Everywhere

More than 560 C-130J Super Hercules aircraft fly in 28 countries. The global fleet has logged over 3 million flight hours. Every one of those planes needs trained pilots, skilled maintenance crews, and updated courseware. Lockheed provides all of it.

That is the quiet genius of this business. You build the aircraft, then you own every layer of support that keeps it flying. The revenue from training and maintenance often outlasts the plane itself.

Training Contracts Are the Best Defense Business

Building military hardware is unpredictable. Budgets get cut. Programs get delayed. Political priorities shift. Training contracts behave differently. They are stable, recurring, and tied directly to aircraft already in service.

Lockheed has been supporting the C-130J program for nearly 30 years. This contract extends that relationship by another decade.

You watch a program like this expand across more military branches, and the math becomes obvious. Lockheed is not just delivering aircraft anymore. It runs the entire ecosystem that keeps them operational for decades at a time.

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The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) just began a round of layoffs that will eliminate around 1,000 jobs across multiple divisions. The cuts hit television, movie studios, ESPN, product and technology, corporate functions, and marketing.

Disney has now eliminated at least 9,000 jobs in the span of a few years. That pattern tells its own story.

Centralization Is the Strategy

Disney is folding its marketing operations for entertainment, sports, and experiences into a single division. The logic is straightforward. One unified team instead of multiple overlapping groups. Fewer layers, clearer reporting lines, and lower costs across the board.

You run a company with film studios, streaming services, theme parks, and live sports, all operating independently, and eventually the overlap becomes impossible to ignore. Disney is finally addressing that overlap head-on.

The Real Test Is Coming

Cost cuts are the easy part. The harder challenge is proving that a smaller Disney can still produce the blockbuster content and iconic experiences that built the brand. Every eliminated role raises the stakes for what the remaining teams have to deliver.

You measure a company transformation by what comes next, not by how many people leave. Disney just set the stage for that judgment to begin.

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Avanos Medical [AVNS] $24.63 (+69.48%)

American Industrial Partners announced an all-cash deal to take Avanos Medical private at $25 per share, representing a 72% premium to Monday’s close and an 83% premium to the 30-day average price.

The $1.27 billion transaction is not subject to a financing condition and is expected to close in the second half of 2026, which is why the stock is trading just below the deal price rather than at it: standard merger-arbitrage spread for completion risk.

Travere Therapeutics [TVTX] $42.21 (+37.23%)

The FDA granted full approval to FILSPARI (sparsentan) for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, making it the first and only approved medicine for FSGS, a rare kidney disease with no prior treatment options.

Guggenheim raised its price target to $54, and HC Wainwright reiterated a Buy, with Travere estimating more than 30,000 U.S. patients eligible for treatment. TVTX is now up 107% over the past year, with a clear commercial revenue runway opening.

Credo Technology [CRDO] $159.01 (+18.92%)

Credo agreed to acquire DustPhotonics for $750 million in cash and stock to expand its silicon photonics capabilities for AI data center networking.

The deal extends Credo’s lead in high-speed optical connectivity infrastructure, and the company already trades at 89x trailing earnings, reflecting the market’s conviction that AI data center buildout makes this a structurally high-growth business for the next several years.

Allogene Therapeutics [ALLO] $2.28 (-25.10%)

Allogene dropped as investors rotated out of high-beta, pre-revenue biotech names into the earnings-driven stories dominating Tuesday’s session.

The company has no near-term catalyst to defend its position, with its next major trial readout several quarters out, and the broader risk-on rally pulling capital toward names with concrete near-term news rather than speculative pipeline value.

CarMax [KMX] $41.58 (-15.33%)

CarMax reported a Q4 net loss of $120.7 million versus a $89.9 million profit a year ago, triggered by a $141.3 million non-cash goodwill impairment the company attributed to a declining market cap and downward revisions to its long-term outlook.

Comparable store sales fell 1.9%, used-car margins dropped to $2,115 per unit (down $207 from last year’s record), and the company suspended its stock buyback program. The adjusted EPS beat of $0.34 versus $0.23 expected did not matter next to the structural deterioration underneath it.

Fastly [FSLY] $20.69 (-14.10%)

Fastly continued its post-ceasefire selloff for a fourth straight session as the rotation out of unprofitable growth software names accelerated.

The edge cloud provider has no new company-specific catalyst, and with the market back near all-time highs and earnings season shifting capital toward companies with concrete results, high-multiple names without near-term profitability are the first to get trimmed. FSLY is now down more than 40% from its 52-week high.

The conflict in Iran isn’t slowing down—it’s intensifying.

Ongoing strikes and pressure on global oil routes are already pushing gas prices higher, with analysts warning of broader economic impact if disruptions continue.

That kind of instability can affect portfolios tied to traditional assets. It’s why many investors look to physical gold as a way to help protect their savings during uncertain times.

Red State Gold Group’s FREE Gold IRA Guide shows how eligible IRA or 401(k) funds can be rolled into physical gold and silver.

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Thanks for reading. I'll see you at the next open! 

Best Regards,
— Adam G.
Elite Trade Club

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