Energy risk is back at the center of the market as fighting threatens traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, TSMC, TCS, and Altera are showing how AI demand is spreading from chips into engineering, robotics, and enterprise deployment.
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Futures at a Glance📈
Futures are lower as another round of U.S.-Iran airstrikes pushes oil higher and revives fears around the Strait of Hormuz. Tech is taking the heavier hit after a sharp sell-off in Asian chip stocks, while traders brace for CPI and the start of a high-stakes bank earnings week.
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What to Watch
Earnings (Aftermarket):
• FB Financial Corporation [FBK]
• Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. [AERO]
Earnings (Time Not Supplied):
• TRX Gold Corporation [TRX]
• GoldMining Inc. [GLDG]
• Pineapple Financial Inc. [PAPL]
• Lexaria Bioscience Corp. [LEXX]
• Jewett-Cameron Trading Company [JCTC]
Economic Reports & Fed Speakers:
• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaks at Bank Policy Institute roundtable: 5:25 am
• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks at New York Association for Business Economics event: 12:30 pm
• Monthly Treasury Balance (Jun.): 2:00 pm
• ECB President Christine Lagarde meets Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh: 5:00 pm
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Market Pulse
Oil Shock Puts the Risk Rally on Hold
Global shares slid as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting sent oil sharply higher, lifting the dollar and bond yields while reviving inflation concerns. Investors now have to balance a strong AI earnings setup against higher energy costs, incoming inflation data, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony.
China’s Export Engine Is Still Running on AI
China’s exports are expected to have grown 18.2% in June, supported by AI-related technology demand and accelerated U.S. orders ahead of possible tariffs. The strength helps offset weak domestic consumption, but it also leaves China increasingly dependent on overseas demand and aggressive pricing.
AI & Semiconductors
TSMC Posts Another Record Quarter
TSMC reported record second-quarter revenue of $39.62 billion, up 36% from a year earlier as AI demand kept advanced-chip capacity busy. The result reinforces the infrastructure bull case, but Thursday’s earnings outlook will matter more for judging whether customer spending can stay this strong.
SK Hynix’s Nasdaq Celebration Meets Profit-Taking
SK Hynix shares fell sharply in Seoul after the chipmaker’s strong Nasdaq debut, as investors locked in gains and lowered expectations for near-term HBM4 shipment growth. The pullback does not erase its leadership in AI memory, but it shows how quickly enthusiasm can fade when valuations outrun earnings expectations.
Enterprise Tech & Robotics
TCS Builds an AI Deployment Army
Tata Consultancy Services plans to create a team of as many as 8,900 forward-deployed AI engineers while exploring acquisitions in AI, data security, and cybersecurity. The move shows how IT-services firms are responding to automation risk: fewer promises about cheap labor and more emphasis on embedding engineers directly with customers.
Altera Finds Its Growth Story in Robots
Altera is growing roughly 20% annually as AI and robotics lift demand for its programmable chips, according to its CEO. The former Intel unit is positioning FPGAs as the connective tissue between sensors, processors, and robotic systems as it prepares for an eventual public listing.
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Energy & Geopolitics
Oil Jumps as Hormuz Traffic Slows Again
Oil prices surged more than 4% after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh strikes, threatening another disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are not pricing a complete shutdown yet, but slower vessel traffic is enough to rebuild the inflation premium that had started to fade.
Europe’s Jet-Fuel Cushion Is Getting Thin
Europe has less than 30 days of jet-fuel demand cover despite importing more fuel and increasing refinery output. That leaves airlines particularly exposed to another Hormuz disruption, with fuel already accounting for roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of operating costs.
Finance & Digital Infrastructure
Mastercard May Hand a Critical UK Network Back to Banks
Mastercard is reportedly considering selling a majority stake in Vocalink, the infrastructure provider that processes most British salaries, household bills, and state benefits. The potential deal reflects growing pressure to keep nationally important payment systems under greater domestic control.
Britain Brings Big Cloud Providers Under Direct Oversight
The U.K. has designated Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Oracle as critical suppliers to its financial sector, subjecting them to resilience testing and direct regulatory supervision. The move highlights a growing risk for banks and insurers: too much essential infrastructure now depends on a small group of cloud platforms.
Trivia: The S&P 500 has only had how many calendar years with a negative total return in the past 50 years?
Movers and Shakers
Range Resources [RRC]: Premarket Move: +5%
Range Resources rose even after UBS lowered its price target to $44 from $49, citing a weaker commodity-price outlook while maintaining a Neutral rating. UBS still expects production to climb from 2.3 billion cubic feet equivalent per day in Q2 to 2.62 billion, alongside stronger share repurchases through 2027.
Fervo Energy [FRVO]: Premarket Move: +4%
Fervo Energy moved higher as investors weighed its nearly $8 billion valuation against the cost of scaling its geothermal projects. The company expects its Phase II development costs to fall 21% to $5,500 per kilowatt, but reaching its longer-term $3,000 target would still require closing an illustrative $1 billion cost gap at a 400-megawatt scale.
SanDisk [SNDK]: Premarket Move: −7%
SanDisk fell despite Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month price target to $2,200 from $1,200 and maintaining a Buy rating. Goldman expects tight NAND supply and improving enterprise SSD demand to support stronger earnings, but the stock’s 596% year-to-date gain is keeping profit-taking pressure high.
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Everything Else
🚀 The search for the next Mag 7 is already underway, as investors look for the companies most likely to lead when today’s giants stop carrying the whole market.
🧠 TSMC’s June revenue rose ahead of its second-quarter report, giving investors another strong signal that AI chip demand remains healthy.
💾 SK Hynix shares slipped after their stellar Nasdaq debut as investors took profits following the listing surge.
🥊 Elon Musk and Sam Altman are sparring again as their increasingly personal rivalry spills deeper into the AI race.
💼 Tata Consultancy Services plans to add as many as 8,900 AI deployment engineers as it builds out its enterprise AI capabilities.
📱 The EU is telling Instagram and Facebook to change potentially addictive features or risk fines, increasing the pressure on Meta’s engagement model.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
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— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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