The Iran war came back into focus Thursday, and so did the limits of the software rally. Oil crossed $105 after reports that Iran’s parliament speaker had resigned from the negotiating team, signaling the Revolutionary Guard is taking firmer control.
Today’s Closing Bell has the full picture.
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Markets
Oil crossed $105 after Iran's parliament speaker resigned from the U.S. negotiating team, raising fears the Revolutionary Guard was consolidating control.
Software took the heaviest damage: ServiceNow fell 17% after citing Iran as a subscription revenue headwind, IBM dropped 8% despite flat guidance and a beat, and the software ETF fell 5% as Microsoft, Palantir, and Oracle declined in sympathy.
Industrials told a different story, with Texas Instruments surging 19% for its best day since 2000, United Rentals jumping 21% on record Q1 results, and Penn Entertainment rallying 15% on a clean beat.
Trump reclassified marijuana as a less dangerous drug, sending cannabis stocks higher, while Meta confirmed 8,000 layoffs to fund its AI push.
DJIA [-0.37%]
S&P 500 [-0.41%]
Nasdaq [-0.88%]
Russell [-0.66%]
Market-Moving News
Streaming
Netflix Just Made a $25 Billion Statement Without Buying Anything
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) just made a bold move that says more about its future than any acquisition ever could. The company approved a massive $25 billion share buyback shortly after walking away from a $72 billion attempt to acquire Warner Bros assets. That decision signals a clear shift from chasing scale through deals to building growth internally.
The timing is not random. Netflix is resetting its direction after stepping back from one of the biggest media deals in years, and is choosing to double down on its own ecosystem rather than expand through acquisitions.
No Deal, No Problem
Walking away from a deal that large could have left a gap in Netflix’s growth story. Instead, the company is showing confidence in its own roadmap, focusing on content, products, and new revenue streams rather than absorbing another media giant. You are looking at a company that believes it can win without needing to buy its way forward.
That decision also keeps Netflix agile. Large mergers come with complexity, while this approach keeps control firmly inside the company’s own strategy.
The Next Phase Starts Now
The bigger story is what happens from here. Netflix is sitting on significant capital, fresh strategic clarity, and a growing list of initiatives that can reshape its business.
Momentum is building in a different way now. You could see Netflix move faster across advertising, live programming, and interactive content, because the company is no longer distracted by a mega deal and is fully focused on executing its own vision.
Consumer
A Sudden Drop Just Reset the Entire Story
Avis Budget Group (NASDAQ: CAR) just delivered one of the sharpest reversals seen in recent company headlines. The company’s stock dropped more than 40% in a single session after an earlier surge driven by heavy market momentum suddenly faded.
That rapid swing pulled attention away from excitement and back toward the underlying business. The speed of the move is what makes this important. A rise that fast and a drop that sharp usually signals that the story was running ahead of reality.
The Story Changed Fast
Avis had been building a strong comeback narrative over the past few weeks. It was getting attention as a company finding new momentum and surprising the market. You could see the shift happen almost instantly, as optimism gave way to uncertainty once the surge reversed.
That kind of change resets expectations. It forces everyone to look again at what is actually driving the company forward rather than what people hoped it could become.
Now the Business Gets Scrutinized
With the momentum gone, the spotlight is back on fundamentals. Avis remains a major player in the car rental space, but questions around consistency, profitability, and long-term growth are now front and center. The conversation is no longer about excitement; it is about stability.
The opportunity is still there, but it looks different now. You could see Avis rebuild its position over time, but it will have to earn that trust step by step.
Oil Markets (Sponsored)
Oil prices are on the rise, putting the energy sector back in the spotlight.
Large banks have raised their crude outlooks, and investors are reexamining which companies could benefit most if supply risks persist.
In a new report, Zacks highlights three oil stocks standing out in the current market backdrop.
View the briefing
Defense
Pentagon Demand Is Rising, and Leidos Is Right in the Middle
Leidos (NYSE: LDOS) just secured a major contract from the U.S. Army to supply additional launchers for a ground-based air defense system. The deal is part of a broader push by the Pentagon to rebuild and expand its defense capabilities as global tensions continue to rise. This is not a one-off order; it is part of a growing pattern of demand.
The scale matters, but the direction matters more. The U.S. government is accelerating defense production, and companies like Leidos are becoming central to that effort.
Defense Demand Is Picking Up Fast
The Pentagon has been increasing orders across multiple defense systems in recent months. Ongoing conflicts have strained stockpiles, creating urgency to replenish and upgrade equipment. You are seeing a shift where defense spending is no longer reactive; it is becoming sustained and forward-looking.
Leidos is benefiting directly from that trend. The company now has a growing pipeline of work tied to systems that are becoming more critical in modern warfare.
Leidos Is Building a Strong Position
Winning repeat contracts like this signals trust and reliability. Leidos is not just supplying equipment; it is becoming part of a longer-term defense strategy that includes development, testing, and deployment. That kind of role tends to expand over time.
Momentum is clearly building here. You could see Leidos continue to secure more contracts as defense priorities stay elevated, because the company is positioning itself as a consistent partner in a rapidly growing space.
Elite Trade Club Insider
Stocks Hit Highs. Insiders Hit Sell
That gap is getting harder to ignore.
The market keeps grinding higher despite the usual geopolitical drama, but insiders are not acting like this is the start of some easy new leg up. One high-flying tech name just saw nearly $169 million in insider selling in a single session, while another leadership team sold into strength as the broader mood stayed upbeat. That kind of split between price action and insider behavior is worth your attention.
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Top Winners and Losers
Travelzoo [TZOO] $9.55 (+26.57%)
Travelzoo reported Q1 results and guided for continued revenue growth in Q2 and beyond, driven by new Club Membership conversions as Legacy Members upgrade to paid tiers
The company reaches 30 million travelers and is rebuilding margin as the membership fee model replaces free access to its travel deals platform. At a $104 million Strong Buy market cap trading at 24x earnings, the membership conversion story is the catalyst, and Q2 guidance confirmed the trajectory.
United Rentals [URI] $977.34 (+22.92%)
United Rentals reported Q1 EPS of $9.71, beating the $8.95 consensus, with revenue of $3.985 billion beating estimates by $115 million and setting a first-quarter record driven by broad demand across nonresidential construction and infrastructure.
The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $16.9-17.4 billion and EBITDA guidance to $7.625-7.875 billion. Specialty segment revenue grew 14%, and EBITDA margins improved 60 basis points to 44.1%.
Texas Instruments [TXN] $277.71 (+19.43%)
Texas Instruments reported Q1 EPS of $1.68, beating the $1.36 consensus by 23%, on revenue of $4.83 billion that topped estimates by 6.6% as industrial and data center demand drove its Analog segment up 22% year-over-year.
Management guided Q2 revenue to $5.0-5.4 billion versus the $4.86 billion consensus, and free cash flow jumped 611% to $1.4 billion. This is the chipmaker’s best single-day gain since October 2000.
ASGN Incorporated [ASGN] $19.53 (-51.69%)
ASGN reported Q1 EPS of $0.69 versus the $0.98 consensus, a 29% miss, on flat revenue of $968.3 million year-over-year, then guided Q2 EPS to $0.72-0.90 versus the $1.28 consensus, a gap that implies meaningful deterioration in IT staffing demand.
The double miss on current results and forward guidance is the primary driver of the selloff, compounded by investor confusion around the simultaneous Quinnox acquisition and rebranding to Everforth.
Avis Budget [CAR] $229.00 (-48.22%)
Avis Budget is in a full short squeeze reversal after running over 100% on the war-trade travel thesis. The ongoing Iran ceasefire uncertainty removes both the bull case (peace = travel recovery) and the bear case (war = no travel), leaving the stock with no fundamental anchor at $221.
The stock is still more than double its pre-war levels with no earnings support, and the unwinding is accelerating as momentum exits.
Medpace Holdings [MEDP] $393.42 (-22.63%)
Medpace beat Q1 revenue ($706.6M vs $696.3M estimate), and EPS ($4.28 vs $3.88 consensus), but the CEO disclosed that cancellations hit their highest level in over a year, concentrated in oncology and cardiovascular, driving the book-to-bill ratio to 0.88.
Management refused to provide 2027 guidance and said visibility beyond two quarters is limited. At $11.35 billion and 25x earnings, investors are not willing to pay a growth premium for a company that cannot see its own pipeline.
Trivia: How much did Jordan Belfort's Stratton Oakmont scam investors out of before his 1998 arrest?
Hidden Moves (Sponsored)
New discussions around financial policy are raising questions about the future of the dollar and asset pricing.
Historically, major shifts have created both risks and opportunities for investors.
Gold, in particular, is once again in focus as a potential beneficiary.
The key is knowing what to watch before any action is taken.
Everything Else
📘 Reliable dividend names are drawing fresh attention, as investors hunt for companies built to keep rewarding shareholders in almost any market.
🤖 The White House is accusing China of industrial-scale theft of U.S. AI technology, escalating tensions and putting fresh pressure on how far Washington goes to protect its lead in the AI race.
🎬 Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approved a $110 billion merger with Paramount Skydance, clearing a major hurdle but leaving regulators as the real gatekeepers of this mega deal.
🏠 The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 6.23%, offering some relief to buyers and signaling that borrowing conditions may finally be easing after a long stretch of pressure.
📊 The S&P 500 hit a new record high, but gains stayed muted as U.S.-Iran tensions lingered, showing markets are balancing optimism with geopolitical caution.
💼 Microsoft is offering voluntary retirement to eligible U.S. employees, a move that hints at ongoing cost discipline even as big tech keeps investing heavily elsewhere.
That's it for today! Please, write us back, and let us know what you think of the Closing Bell Roundup. We're always eager to hear feedback!
Thanks for reading. I'll see you at the next open!
Best Regards,
— Adam G.
Elite Trade Club
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