Energy and semiconductors are driving today’s market setup. Oil is climbing on renewed Hormuz risk, ASML is preparing to address capacity pressure, and stronger trading activity could give major banks a lift as earnings season accelerates.
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Futures at a Glance📈
Futures are mixed as traders juggle rising Middle East tensions, bank earnings, and a fresh inflation read. Oil and bond yields are back under pressure after Trump moved to reinstate the Iran blockade, while tech is showing a little more resilience. CPI and Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony now take center stage.
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What to Watch
Earnings (Premarket):
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. [JPM]
• Bank of America Corporation [BAC]
• The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [GS]
• Wells Fargo & Company [WFC]
• Citigroup Inc. [C]
• Fastenal Company [FAST]
• Ericsson [ERIC]
Earnings (Aftermarket):
• Aehr Test Systems [AEHR]
• Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd. [KMTS]
• Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. [PXED]
Economic Reports & Fed Speakers:
• NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism (Jun.): 6:00 am
• CPI (Jun.): 8:30 am
• CPI, Y/Y% (Jun.): 8:30 am
• CPI Core, Y/Y% (Jun.): 8:30 am
• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh presents the Monetary Policy Report to the U.S. House Financial Services Committee: 10:00 am
• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Kenosha Area Business Alliance Business Lunch: 1:00 pm
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Market Pulse
Hormuz Toll Threat Keeps Markets on Edge
Global stocks swung between gains and losses as oil reached a one-month high after President Trump reinstated a blockade on Iranian shipping and proposed a 20% fee on cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are also waiting on inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony, leaving rates, crude, and geopolitics in control of the session.
South Korea’s AI Boom Turns Into a Bear-Market Whipsaw
South Korea’s Kospi has fallen roughly 25% from its late-June peak even though it remains the world’s best-performing major market this year. Strong chip earnings still support the longer-term case, but heavy margin debt and extreme concentration in Samsung and SK Hynix have made the correction unusually violent.
AI & Semiconductors
Nvidia Tightens Access to Its AI Chips
Nvidia has reportedly more than halved the number of Asian customers authorized to buy its AI chips after introducing tougher compliance checks designed to prevent the hardware from reaching China. The restrictions protect Nvidia from regulatory risk, but they may also limit sales just as Asian demand for computing capacity continues to accelerate.
ASML Faces a Capacity-and-China Test
ASML is preparing to address surging equipment demand and tighter China export controls when it reports earnings Wednesday. AI chipmakers are rushing to add capacity, but investors want proof that ASML can increase production without becoming the next major bottleneck in the semiconductor buildout.
Energy & New Power
OPEC Cuts Its Oil-Demand Forecast Again
OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil-demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day, marking its third consecutive reduction. The softer demand outlook clashes with today’s geopolitical price spike, creating a market where near-term supply risk is bullish for crude even as the underlying consumption picture weakens.
Fusion Funding Hits a New Record
Annual investment in private fusion-energy companies jumped 69% to nearly $4.5 billion, taking cumulative funding since 2021 above $14 billion. Commercial power remains years away, but rising electricity demand from AI data centers is giving investors another reason to fund technologies that could eventually provide large-scale, carbon-free energy.
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Finance & Deal Flow
Wall Street Banks Enter Earnings With a Trading Tailwind
Major U.S. banks are expected to report stronger trading and investment-banking revenue as volatility and blockbuster offerings—including the SpaceX IPO—boosted activity during the second quarter. The results should show whether healthy markets and loan growth can outweigh concerns about higher rates, energy inflation, and worsening geopolitical risk.
KKR Joins a $5.3 Billion Insurance-Broker Bid
KKR has joined Amwins and Dragoneer in their proposed acquisition of Australia’s Steadfast, valuing the insurance broker at roughly $5.3 billion. The bid shows private capital is still willing to pursue large transactions in recurring-revenue financial businesses despite higher borrowing costs.
Cybersecurity & Defense
Pentagon Backs Away From a Costly Cyber Rule
The Pentagon has paused the next phase of its cybersecurity certification program after smaller defense contractors warned that audit costs and delays were pushing suppliers out of the industry. Temporary self-assessments may preserve competition and accelerate weapons production, but they also leave the department balancing supply-chain capacity against cybersecurity risk.
Canada Warns Banks About Frontier AI Threats
Canada’s banking regulator warned major financial institutions that advanced AI models could sharply accelerate cyberattacks, leaving firms less time to identify and fix vulnerabilities. Banks may capture major productivity gains from AI, but an increasing share of those savings could be redirected toward security software, infrastructure upgrades, and faster threat response.
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Movers and Shakers
Tower Semiconductor [TSEM]: Premarket Move: +19%
Tower Semiconductor surged after the chipmaker announced a roughly $3 billion capacity expansion across its Japanese operations, supported by $1 billion in government grants. The investment will expand production of silicon photonics, silicon germanium, and advanced packaging used in AI and data-center connectivity, with Tower targeting $3.6 billion in revenue by 2028.
SanDisk [SNDK]: Premarket Move: +4%
SanDisk moved higher after Evercore ISI raised its price target to $3,100 and maintained an Outperform rating. The firm estimates SanDisk’s five long-term supply agreements represent roughly $62 billion in minimum committed revenue, giving the company stronger pricing visibility as demand continues to outpace memory supply.
Penguin Solutions [PENG]: Premarket Move: −5%
Penguin Solutions fell after the company announced plans to offer $650 million of convertible senior notes due in 2031, with buyers receiving an option for another $100 million. The proceeds will help refinance existing convertible debt, repay $100 million under its credit agreement, and fund capped-call transactions, but investors are focused on the potential dilution after the stock’s sharp year-to-date run.
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Everything Else
🚀 The search for the next Mag 7 is already underway, as investors look for the companies most likely to lead when today’s giants stop carrying the whole market.
🚢 Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is falling as the U.S. and Iran fight for control, raising fresh concerns around energy flows.
📦 China’s June trade data showed renewed movement in exports and imports, giving investors another read on global demand.
🤖 AI agents could force a major reset in SaaS pricing as companies shift away from charging customers by the software seat.
🏦 A Canadian regulator cited Anthropic’s Claude “mythos” while warning banks about mounting AI cyber risks.
🧰 ASML is expected to shed more light on capacity constraints and its challenges in China as investors assess the chip-equipment outlook.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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