Three Different Reactions to Caution, Change, and Confidence

One company played it safe and got punished for it. Another made a major leadership move, but not one that fixes weak fundamentals overnight, while a third is still talking confidently even as the stock gets hit. We’ll show you which setup is still dead money, which one needs more time, and where the market may be selling too aggressively.

Oil prices are on the rise, putting the energy sector back in the spotlight.

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Futures are slipping after another record day, as traders take a breather and sort through a fresh round of earnings reactions. The market still has momentum, but mixed after-hours moves and more Strait of Hormuz tension are keeping the mood a little less carefree this morning.

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Earnings (Premarket):
• American Express Company [AXP]
• Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc [TMO]
• NextEra Energy, Inc. [NEE]
• Union Pacific Corporation [UNP]
• Honeywell International Inc. [HON]
• Lockheed Martin Corporation [LMT]
• Sanofi [SNY]

Earnings (Aftermarket):
• Intel Corporation [INTC]
• SAP SE [SAP]
• Newmont Corporation [NEM]

Economic Reports:
• Initial jobless claims (April 18): 8:30 am
• S&P flash U.S. services PMI (April): 9:45 am
• S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI (April): 9:45 am

That gap is getting harder to ignore.

The market keeps grinding higher despite the usual geopolitical drama, but insiders are not acting like this is the start of some easy new leg up. One high-flying tech name just saw nearly $169 million in insider selling in a single session, while another leadership team sold into strength as the broader mood stayed upbeat. That kind of split between price action and insider behavior is worth your attention.

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IBM (NYSE: IBM) delivered a better quarter than the market expected, with adjusted EPS of $1.91 versus $1.81 expected and revenue of $15.92 billion against the $15.62 billion consensus. Revenue grew 9% year over year, which is a strong number for a company this size, and software revenue rose 11% while infrastructure jumped 15%. The problem is that none of that came with a guidance raise.

Management kept its full-year outlook intact, including more than 5% revenue growth at constant currency and a $1 billion increase to free cash flow.

That might sound fine on paper, but a stock that has already fallen about 15% in 2026 needed more than a beat-and-repeat quarter to change the mood. Investors wanted clearer proof that the growth pockets, especially software and mainframes, can carry more weight from here.

There are still good pieces in the story. Red Hat remains important, the z17 mainframe cycle looks strong, and IBM closed its $11 billion Confluent acquisition earlier than expected. But this is still a market that rewards upside revisions, not just solid execution.

My Take For You: IBM’s business looks steadier than the stock reaction suggests, but the market is telling you steady is not enough right now. This looks more like a patience story than a fresh momentum story.

My Verdict: Buy this only if you want a steady tech compounder and are willing to sit through a slower rerating. The risk is that management keeps delivering decent quarters without giving the market a reason to pay more for them.

Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU) is trying to reset the story with a new leader, naming former Nike executive Heidi O’Neill as CEO effective September 8. On paper, the choice makes sense. She has real experience in activewear, brand strategy, and scaled consumer businesses. The problem is that the market is not giving the company much benefit of the doubt yet, and the stock dropped more than 5% after hours on the news.

That reaction reflects the bigger issue. Lululemon is dealing with weak sales, heavier competition, tariff pressure, and an active proxy battle with founder Chip Wilson, criticizing the business publicly.

In its last earnings report, the company said tariffs are expected to cost it $380 million this year. That is not a small headwind, especially for a company already trying to regain its footing.

The stock closed at $163.45, down 38.5% over the past year, and now trades at roughly 12.3x earnings, which is much cheaper than where investors used to price this brand. That can create opportunity, but only if execution actually improves. A new CEO is a start, not the finish line.

My Take For You: This is a credible leadership hire, but a credible hire alone does not fix weak sales, brand fatigue, and margin pressure. Let the new strategy start showing up before treating this as a clean turnaround.

My Verdict: Stay out until the new CEO shows she can stabilize sales and restore confidence in the brand. The risk is that cheap valuation pulls buyers in before the business is actually fixed.

Talk of a major financial executive order is putting renewed focus on U.S. monetary policy.

Some analysts believe a shift like this could impact everything from savings to asset prices—including gold.

The last time a major policy change occurred, certain assets saw significant long-term moves.

Now, investors are watching closely for what may come next.

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ServiceNow Inc (NYSE: NOW) beat Wall Street on both revenue and earnings, yet the stock still fell about 13% after hours. That tells you the market is no longer rewarding simple beats in this name. It wants a cleaner growth narrative, especially after the stock had already dropped roughly 30% this year before this report.

The quarter itself was not weak. Subscription revenue grew 19% on a constant-currency basis, even with a 75 basis point headwind tied to delayed on-premise deal closings in the Middle East. CEO Bill McDermott argued that the issue was timing, not demand destruction, and said AI remains a tailwind because more enterprise workflows should run through ServiceNow’s platform.

That may be true, but investors are clearly asking a harder question now: if AI is a tailwind, where is the upside surprise? The company is still seen as a major workflow software player, but the stock is trading like the market needs stronger evidence that AI adoption will expand value rather than compress it. At about 61.7x earnings, the multiple still assumes a lot of future success.

My Take For You: The business is holding up better than the chart suggests, but management confidence is not enough by itself. The stock now needs proof that AI demand is translating into a stronger growth path, not just a better talking point.

My Verdict: Buy this drop. Better if you believe enterprise AI still needs a workflow backbone and the market is overreacting to a timing issue. The risk is that the stock keeps compressing because investors no longer want to pay a premium for good-but-not-great upside.

QuantumScape is ripping because the quarter was good enough to keep the battery story alive. EPS came in at -$0.16 versus -$0.18 expected, the company reiterated full-year guidance, and it still has about $904.7 million in liquidity to keep funding the buildout. For a stock that lives on future potential, that was enough to bring buyers back fast.

This is still not a proven business. The company lost $100.8 million in the quarter and remains years away from showing real operating strength. But today’s move makes sense because the market was braced for worse.

United Rentals is jumping because this was a strong quarter in all the ways that matter. Revenue rose 7.2% to $3.99 billion, net income hit $531 million, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 5.3% to $1.76 billion. That is a big company still putting up serious numbers, which is why the stock is being rewarded.

This is not meme heat or a squeeze. It is a market leader showing that demand and pricing still have real strength behind them.

ASGN is getting crushed because the quarter missed badly enough to kill the benefit of any strategic spin. EPS came in at $0.69 versus $0.98 expected, revenue missed too, and gross margin slid to 27.5% from 28.4% a year ago. That is not a brand-refresh problem. That is an execution problem.

Yes, management is talking up AI, data solutions, and the Everforth rebrand. None of that matters today because the core numbers were weak and the market is not in the mood to give second chances on soft results.

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That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.

Best Regards,

— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club

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