The clearest calls today are not complicated: avoid the private-credit liquidity issue, avoid the autonomy probe risk, and look at the tech name building quantum credibility the slow way.
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Futures at a Glance📈
Futures are under pressure as the tech sell-off spreads across global markets. Nasdaq names are taking the brunt again, with SpaceX sliding for a third straight session and Asia getting hit hard overnight. Oil is easing on fresh U.S.-Iran deal progress, but traders are more focused on whether the AI trade is finally losing momentum.
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What to Watch
Earnings (Premarket):
• Carnival Corporation Ltd. [CCL]
• Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. [SUNB]
• Korn Ferry [KFY]
Earnings (Aftermarket):
• FedEx Corporation [FDX]
• Cerebras Systems Inc. [CBRS]
• ICON plc [ICLR]
• KB Home [KBH]
• Worthington Enterprises, Inc. [WOR]
Earnings (Time Not Supplied):
• Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc [CCEP]
• China Yuchai International Limited [CYD]
Economic Reports:
• US Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun.): 9:45 am
• US Flash Services PMI (Jun.): 9:45 am
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Private Credit
Apollo Global Management Inc Has a Private Credit Liquidity Problem
Apollo Global Management Inc (NYSE: APO) is back in the spotlight for the wrong reason. The company is capping withdrawals from its Apollo Debt Solutions private credit vehicle at 5% after redemption requests jumped to nearly 17% in the second quarter.
That is a big number. Investors asked to pull about $2.4 billion from the fund during the quarter, after withdrawal requests had already reached 11.2% in the previous period.
Apollo said net outflows from the vehicle should be about $400 million for the second quarter and year to date, representing 3% of NAV. That softens the headline, but it does not remove the bigger issue.
The concern is structural. Semi-liquid private credit funds offer wealthy retail investors access to less-liquid assets, but the liquidity promise gets tested when too many investors want out at once.
Apollo also pointed to a regional split, with U.S. onshore clients requesting 4.3% in redemptions and offshore investors requesting 12.5%. That suggests the pressure is not evenly distributed.
The company said challenges are largely confined to software exposure, but the market will not treat this as just a problem in one sector. Blackstone and Partners Group have also faced redemption pressure this month, which makes the issue feel broader.
Apollo remains a major private-markets platform, but the stock does not need this kind of headline. At a market cap above $81 billion, investors are paying for scale and trust. Redemption gates put both under pressure.
My Take For You: Apollo’s long-term franchise is strong, but the private credit redemption spike weakens the near-term setup and raises real questions about semi-liquid fund structures.
My Verdict: Sell this. The risk is that more outflow headlines hit private credit funds and investors start discounting asset managers with heavy retail-credit exposure.
Electric Vehicles
Tesla Inc Gets Another Autonomy Risk Reminder
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) is facing a fresh federal investigation after a Model 3 crashed into a Texas home and killed a 76-year-old woman. The driver told local authorities he had been using Tesla’s partially automated driving systems at the time.
The facts are still under investigation. Tesla executives said the driver manually overrode the system by pressing the accelerator, and that has not been independently verified.
Still, the headline matters. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened more than three dozen Tesla special crash investigations involving the company’s partially automated systems since 2016.
That is a problem because Tesla’s valuation is deeply tied to autonomy. The stock trades around 370x earnings, which means investors are not valuing it like a normal automaker. They are paying for robotaxis, software, and a future self-driving platform.
Regulatory scrutiny makes that story harder to underwrite. Tesla already changed the U.S. name of Autopilot under legal pressure from the California Department of Motor Vehicles, and courts have found concerns around false advertising tied to driver-assistance claims.
The stock closed at $405.05, giving the company a market cap around $1.27 trillion. That is a huge valuation for a company facing recurring questions over the safety, marketing, and reliability of its autonomy stack.
Tesla can still win long term. But right now, the risk is bigger than one crash. It is about whether regulators, courts, and consumers keep trusting the autonomy narrative.
My Take For You: Tesla’s autonomy story is still powerful, but the latest federal probe adds more pressure to a stock already priced for major self-driving success.
My Verdict: Sell this. The risk is that regulatory scrutiny slows the robotaxi timeline and forces investors to value Tesla more like an EV company than an autonomy platform.
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Technology
IBM Common Stock Is Building the Quantum Story the Right Way
IBM Common Stock (NYSE: IBM) is taking a more practical approach to quantum computing. Instead of selling quantum advantage as one big market-wide breakthrough, IBM is defining it by specific problems that quantum systems can solve better, cheaper, or faster than classical methods.
That matters because quantum has been stuck between huge promises and limited commercial proof. IBM’s latest report focuses on business readiness, practical use cases, skills, partnerships, and measurable return on investment.
The numbers show why companies are paying attention. IBM found that 60% of surveyed organizations are pursuing quantum to solve complex business challenges, 55% are preparing computational strategies for future changes, and 54% want to accelerate innovation.
The barriers are also clear. A lack of quantum skills was cited by 61% of respondents, immature technology by 56%, and unclear timelines by 46%.
That balanced framing is a positive. IBM is not pretending quantum is ready to replace classical computing everywhere. It is building credibility by focusing on where the technology can matter first.
The use cases are serious. Boeing is studying quantum chemistry and materials science. Vanguard has explored hybrid quantum-classical approaches for anti-money laundering, risk modeling, and portfolio optimization. Biomedical researchers are testing quantum methods for genomics and drug discovery.
IBM also has a reasonable valuation compared with many future-tech names. The stock trades around 22x earnings, pays a dividend, and is not priced like the market is giving full credit for quantum upside.
My Take For You: IBM’s quantum story looks credible because it is tied to specific business problems, real partnerships, and a more disciplined view of adoption.
My Verdict: Buy this. The risk is that quantum timelines remain long and investors lose patience before practical commercial use cases become material to revenue.
Poll: Which of these market regimes do you find easiest to make money in?
Movers and Shakers
SpaceX [SPCX]: Premarket Move: −3%
SpaceX is sliding again after Monday’s 16% drop wiped out roughly $400 billion in market value. The stock is now trading near $149 premarket, down hard from its post-IPO high of $225.64.
This is the hangover after the IPO frenzy. SpaceX still has a massive story, including $100.8 billion in cash and fresh computing-power deals tied to its Colossus infrastructure. But the first wave of buyers came in too hot, and the market is now forcing a reset.
My Take: Do not buy this dip yet. SpaceX remains a long-term leader, but the stock needs to find a floor before new money steps in.
Octave Intelligence [OCTV]: Premarket Move: +3%
Octave is catching a small bid after Barclays initiated coverage with an Equal-Weight rating and an $18 price target. That target sits above the recent close of $15.65, but it is not a screaming bull call.
The setup is more cautious than exciting. OCTV trades at about 14.4x earnings, below its five-year median of 15.29x, and its forward P/E near 12x points to some earnings growth. But the weak 20/100 GF Score and poor growth and momentum ratings explain why Barclays stayed balanced.
My Take: Treat this as a rebound trade, not a breakout. The valuation is reasonable, but the stock needs stronger growth signals before it deserves a bigger position.
EPAM Systems [EPAM]: Premarket Move: +3%
EPAM is bouncing after fresh attention on its AI turnaround story. The stock is still down more than 60% year to date, but Q1 showed signs of stabilization with $1.4 billion in revenue, 7.6% growth, and adjusted EPS up 18.7% to $2.86.
The AI angle is becoming more real. EPAM’s AI-native revenue hit $125 million in Q1, up nearly 20% sequentially, and more than 80% of its top 100 clients are now engaged in AI initiatives. The problem is that the stock’s projected upside to around $90 by late 2028 is steady, not explosive.
My Take: Buy the turnaround only if you are patient. EPAM is rebuilding credibility through AI services, but this is a grind higher, not a fast momentum trade.
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Everything Else
📊 Investor attention is starting to widen, as the hunt moves beyond the Mag 7 and toward companies with the traits to lead the next phase.
📡 Singtel is selling a Gulf Development stake as it frees up cash for more AI investment.
🔥 Singapore inflation picked up in May as energy prices pushed costs higher at the fastest pace.
💳 Cred’s $4 billion valuation is getting another look as Meta and WhatsApp become part of the growth story.
🌱 The UN chief is calling on AI firms to be more transparent about the environmental costs behind their models.
📉 Tech megacaps slid as SpaceX extended its slump and investors kept worrying about AI spending.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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