$16.5B Circuit Play Sparks a New Charge

A blockbuster chip contract, rising momentum in energy exports, and a trade reset are reshaping the map. From semiconductors to LNG terminals, a new wave of capital is flowing fast. Here’s what traders are watching as the week kicks off.

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The escalating U.S.-China trade tensions are reshaping the AI landscape.

Companies like Nvidia are facing significant revenue hits with the U.S. imposing new export restrictions on advanced AI chips to China.

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Tesla [TSLA] shares rose by about 1.6% in premarket trading after Elon Musk confirmed that the company has signed a long-term chip supply agreement with Samsung Electronics, worth $16.5 billion.

The deal runs through the end of 2033 and covers Tesla’s next-generation AI6 chips, which will be manufactured at Samsung’s new Texas facility.

Samsung had initially kept the counterparty confidential in its regulatory filing, but Musk confirmed on social media that Tesla is the client.

He added that the chips will play a central role in Tesla’s AI and autonomy roadmap, and that Tesla will collaborate closely with Samsung to enhance its manufacturing efficiency.

This deal provides Tesla with a dedicated supply line for critical AI semiconductors, as competition for advanced chips intensifies. The company currently uses TSMC for its AI5 chip and plans to transition manufacturing to Samsung with the next node, citing strategic benefits from domestic production and tighter integration.

Tesla has been under pressure in 2025, with its shares down over 16% year-to-date amid concerns about vehicle margins and EV market saturation. The Samsung partnership provides investors with a new narrative centered on Tesla’s evolution into an AI-focused technology platform.

With demand for compute accelerating across the industry, this agreement positions Tesla to reduce supply chain risk and improve performance in its full self-driving and robotics programs.

Traders watching for a breakout may want to keep an eye on follow-up announcements about chip production timelines or AI product rollouts.

NextDecade [NEXT] rose 5.5% in premarket trading following a wave of bullish analyst updates and increasing institutional interest. Morgan Stanley lifted its price target to $15 from $10, and Seaport Research initiated coverage with a Strong Buy ” rating, citing near-term catalysts and longer-term growth potential in the LNG sector.

The liquefied natural gas developer is attracting attention as it approaches Final Investment Decisions on additional trains at its Rio Grande export project. These milestones could significantly boost the valuation, according to analysts who view the stock as underappreciated relative to its peers.

Three out of four analysts covering the company rate it a Buy or Strong Buy. The average 12-month target now stands at $13, with institutional ownership above 66 percent. Hedge funds, including Millennium Management and Nuveen LLC, have recently increased their positions.

NEXT has risen more than 36 percent year to date and currently trades just below its 52-week high. The company also has exposure to carbon capture and storage, positioning it as a dual play on energy exports and emissions reduction.

With LNG in focus following recent trade developments and global energy security concerns, NextDecade could benefit from increased attention as it heads into August.

For investors looking ahead, any update on commercial progress or additional contracts may unlock the next leg higher.

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Cheniere Energy [LNG] advanced more than 5% in premarket trading following the announcement of a new U.S.-EU trade deal that eliminates tariffs on liquefied natural gas exports. The agreement, valued at over $600 billion in mutual investment, provides a clear path to improved margins and long-term demand stability for U.S. LNG producers.

The EU has committed to diversifying its energy supply away from Russian gas and toward American LNG. Cheniere, as the largest U.S. exporter and a key supplier to Europe, is expected to benefit directly from increased volume and contract visibility.

Analysts believe the tariff relief could lead to higher realized prices and more favorable contract terms, while also improving regulatory predictability for infrastructure operators. Cheniere currently runs major export terminals in Texas and Louisiana and has the capacity to expand output.

The trade deal also signals a thaw in transatlantic relations on energy policy, reducing geopolitical risk for exporters and potentially encouraging further investment in LNG terminals and shipping.

For investors, Cheniere offers both short-term momentum and long-term structural upside. Shares have traded in a tight range for much of the year, but a trade deal could catalyze a breakout if supported by new contract wins or revisions to earnings guidance.

The next few weeks may be key as traders assess follow-through on the EU’s procurement commitments.

Last Close: $14.56 | Premarket: +5.91%

Venture Global is a U.S. LNG exporter with large-scale infrastructure and long-term offtake deals. It just signed a 20-year supply agreement with PETRONAS for its CP2 facility, adding to its customer base across Asia and Europe. This follows momentum from the U.S.-EU trade deal, which is expected to support LNG demand and streamline export flows.

Investors are reacting to the growing visibility around CP2, which now has over 75 percent of Phase 1 capacity sold. With over 100 MTPA under development and strategic partnerships in place, Venture Global is gaining traction as a key LNG growth story.

Last Close: $15.72 | Premarket: +5.60%

PagerDuty builds software that helps IT teams manage outages and automate incident response and resolution. The stock is rising after reports that it is exploring a sale, with Qatalyst Partners advising. Interest from private equity has returned, following similar talks in early 2024.

The company trades at a modest valuation and has a clean balance sheet, making it a potential target for a takeover. Investors are positioning ahead of any formal deal announcements.

Last Close: $65.75 | Premarket: -0.90%

Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner, up over 70 percent this year. The company just delivered another strong quarter and reaffirmed production guidance. UBS and Macquarie raised their price targets, calling Newmont's forecast conservative.

Gold remains near multi-year highs, and Newmont is executing well with steady margins and rising output. The stock is pausing slightly today, but has held its breakout levels.

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That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.

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— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club

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