Investors are starting to question how long hyperscaler spending can keep accelerating, even as money continues pouring into U.S. AI stocks. Meanwhile, rising Hormuz risk is lifting oil, Europe’s rearmament cycle is boosting defense orders, and Netflix is reminding Wall Street that strong results still need a strong outlook.
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Futures at a Glance📈
Futures are sliding as the global chip sell-off deepens and another night of U.S. strikes on Iran keeps risk appetite under pressure. Semiconductors are taking the hardest hit, while traders watch whether diplomatic efforts can pull Washington and Tehran back toward a deal before energy disruptions spread further.
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What to Watch
Earnings (Premarket):
• The Travelers Companies, Inc. [TRV]
• Truist Financial Corporation [TFC]
• Fifth Third Bancorp [FITB]
• Regions Financial Corporation [RF]
• Autoliv, Inc. [ALV]
Earnings (Time Not Supplied):
• HDFC Bank Limited [HDB]
• ICICI Bank Limited [IBN]
• Republic Bancorp, Inc. [RBCAA]
• Bank First Corporation [BFC]
• MetroCity Bankshares, Inc. [MCBS]
Economic Reports:
• Housing Starts (Jun.): 8:30 am
• Import Prices (Jun.): 8:30 am
• Industrial Production, M/M% (Jun.): 9:15 am
• Capacity Utilization % (Jun.): 9:15 am
• U. Michigan Prelim Consumer Survey (Jul.): 10:00 am
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Market Pulse
Chips Sink Again as Oil Compounds the Pressure
Global stocks fell sharply as the semiconductor rout spread across Asia and renewed Gulf tensions pushed oil higher. Investors are rotating toward banks and other sectors with firmer near-term earnings, while Taiwan and Japan remain especially vulnerable to any retreat from the crowded AI hardware trade.
Foreign Investors Keep Betting on U.S. AI Exceptionalism
Global investors poured a net $120.8 billion into U.S. equities in May, the second-largest monthly inflow on record, even as money exited South Korea and Taiwan. The flows suggest investors may still view Wall Street as the safest place to own AI growth, but the data predates the latest U.S. semiconductor sell-off.
AI & Semiconductors
Investors Prepare for a Slower AI Spending Curve
Some fund managers are cutting semiconductor exposure and shifting toward software, cybersecurity, cloud platforms, and liquid cooling as they prepare for hyperscaler spending growth to moderate. AI investment can remain enormous without accelerating quickly enough to justify every valuation across the infrastructure chain.
Google’s Next Gemini Model Falls Behind Schedule
Google is reportedly months behind schedule on Gemini 3.5 Pro, with the flagship model still falling short of internal targets in areas including coding. The delay gives OpenAI and Anthropic more room to compete for enterprise customers while raising questions about whether rapid AI spending always translates into faster product releases.
Energy & Geopolitics
Oil Heads for Its Biggest Weekly Gain in Months
Oil prices climbed as escalating U.S.-Iran attacks threatened both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea shipping route. Crude is now carrying a much larger geopolitical premium, with traders facing the possibility that disruption could spread from one critical energy chokepoint to another.
The IEA Warns the Hormuz Clock Is Ticking
Global energy security could be seriously threatened unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens within weeks, according to the head of the International Energy Agency. Inventories can cushion a brief disruption, but prolonged restrictions would increasingly hit oil and LNG supplies, transportation costs, and inflation.
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Defense & Aerospace
Saab’s Order Book Surges With Europe’s Rearmament
Saab reported stronger-than-expected quarterly profit as sales and defense orders accelerated. Demand for Gripen fighters, submarines, missiles, and surveillance aircraft is forcing the company to expand capacity, turning Europe’s rearmament cycle into a multiyear industrial growth story.
Weapons Take Center Stage at Farnborough
The Farnborough Airshow is shifting its attention from commercial jets toward drones, AI-enabled weapons, and uncrewed combat systems. Half of this year’s record 1,600 exhibitors are defense-related, showing how military spending and battlefield technology are increasingly shaping the aerospace industry’s growth agenda.
Consumer & Media
Netflix’s Growth Forecast Disappoints Wall Street
Netflix shares fell after its third-quarter revenue and earnings outlook missed analyst expectations. Advertising, live events, gaming, and AI-assisted production offer new growth avenues, but investors are questioning how quickly those businesses can offset a maturing subscription model.
Seven & i Looks to Build a European Growth Engine
Seven & i shares rose after reports that the retailer is discussing an investment in Polish convenience-store operator Zabka. With more than 13,000 stores across Poland and Romania, Zabka could give the 7-Eleven owner a stronger European platform as it faces pressure to improve growth and focus on its core convenience business.
Trivia: Jesse Livermore is one of the greatest traders in history. What did he do during the 1929 market crash?
Movers and Shakers
Chubb [CB]: Premarket Move: +3%
Chubb moved higher as investors positioned for year-over-year earnings and revenue growth ahead of its upcoming report. The insurer’s estimated fair value of $355.83 sits modestly above its latest close, while disciplined underwriting and a new $5 billion share-repurchase authorization continue to support the earnings outlook.
Intuitive Surgical [ISRG]: Premarket Move: −11%
Intuitive Surgical plunged after the robotic-surgery leader beat second-quarter procedure-growth expectations but declined to raise its full-year outlook. Management expects da Vinci procedure growth near the midpoint of its existing 13.5% to 15.5% range, disappointing investors who had priced in a stronger guidance increase.
MKS Instruments [MKSI]: Premarket Move: −7%
MKS Instruments fell even after Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating and $600 price target. Cantor sees earnings reaching roughly $20 per share in 2027 and $26 in 2028, supported by AI-driven demand for wafer-fabrication equipment and advanced substrates, but the stock remains vulnerable to profit-taking after nearly doubling this year.
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Everything Else
⚡ EV stocks are starting to draw more interest, as investors look for the companies best positioned to benefit from the market’s projected growth over the next several years.
📺 Netflix’s second-quarter results put subscriber growth, advertising, and margins back in focus as investors assessed the streaming outlook.
🛡️ Saab’s second-quarter report showed stronger defense sales and orders as Europe’s military buildup continues feeding the sector boom.
⚡ Elon Musk’s Colossus data center in Memphis is drawing more scrutiny over its massive power needs and community impact.
📉 Some investors are preparing for slower hyperscaler spending growth as questions build around the durability of the AI capex cycle.
🌏 The founder of Network School says an immigration probe into the tech commune could threaten Malaysia’s effort to attract global talent.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
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— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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