Beat, Raise, and Shrug: Big Blue’s Buy-the-Dip Setup

Solid beat, guidance a notch higher, AI backlog fatter, but the stock sulked. Let it base, then scale in on green days while you watch AI deals turn into revenue and the cash machine keeps funding buybacks and dividends.

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Earnings hangover on the menu again, with last night’s marquee names not exactly bringing the confetti. Oil’s perking up, chip and cloud sentiment is wobbly, and traders are side-eyeing fresh chatter about software export curbs to China even as a D.C.–Beijing meet now looks back on the calendar.

Bigger picture, this rally’s wearing high-altitude gear and the vibe is a little late-’90s, with plenty of dream math and meme heat. CPI lands tomorrow, the Fed is still flirting with another trim, and rotation talk says “maybe some health care with that momentum smoothie.” Keep your helmet on and your watchlist tight.

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Premarket Earnings:

Aftermarket Earnings:

Economic Reports:

Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) is going bigger while everyone else is going smaller, and the bet is simple: let shoppers touch, swing, climb, skate, and then buy.

These mega House of Sport stores are basically theme parks for cleats and cardio, with climbing walls, batting cages, golf sims, and a House of Cleats that could outfit half your kid’s travel league. The pitch to brands is strong shelf space and stronger vibes, and big names are showing up with exclusives while newer labels get a stage to flex.

Yes, these builds aren’t cheap, and many live in malls that have seen better days, but early productivity looks beefy, and repeat visits tend to follow a good demo session. Layer in the Foot Locker deal and you’ve got a serious footwear engine bolted onto an already solid playbook.

My Take For You: If you’re long DKS, ride the concept rollout and use weak mall headlines as buy-the-dip fuel. If you’re flat, stalk entries on boring days and aim for pullbacks toward prior bases rather than chasing the next wow opening.

My Verdict: Accumulate on dips with a sport-sized stop. The story works as long as the big boxes keep printing strong sales per square foot and youth sports spending stays relentless.

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) is staring at a strike authorization vote just as its turnaround tries to speed up service and warm up hospitality.

Not ideal, especially with store closures, staffing tweaks, and a hefty investment to make lines move faster and smiles stick. The good news is that most stores aren’t unionized, caffeine demand rarely ghosts you, and a couple of fresh Buy calls suggest patience can pay.

The bad news is that labor noise dents sentiment, operational fixes cost real money, and a choppy macro makes premium lattes an easy cut for some wallets. If the Back to Starbucks playbook leads to quicker drinks at peak and happier crews, the margin math gets better fast. If not, you’re paying up for a chain jogging in place.

My Take For You: If you’re already long SBUX, treat headlines like steam from the wand, loud but fleeting. Keep a stop under recent support and trim into strength. If you’re window shopping, fish for red days or post-earnings shakes when the crowd overreacts.

My Verdict: Hold if owned, nibble on dips if not. Upside comes from smoother shifts, faster lines, and evidence that the hospitality push boosts repeat visits and ticket size.

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IBM (NYSE: IBM) topped expectations, nudged guidance higher, flashed a bigger AI backlog…and the stock still pouted.

Classic good isn’t wow after a strong run. Software and consulting are humming, mainframes did their hero arc, and cash flow looks sturdy. But in a market hooked on fireworks, solid execution without a jaw-dropper can trigger profit-taking.

The road ahead is about turning AI pilots into scaled deployments, keeping services sticky, and recycling that free cash into buybacks and dividends. Do that, and after the hot-money shakeout, the long-only crowd usually drifts back.

My Take For You: If you chased IBM late, don’t panic sell into the first downdraft, let it base. If you had a piece from lower, consider peeling a slice and ratcheting stops to protect gains. And if you’re flat on the stock, park bids near the last breakout zone and let the price come to you.

My Verdict: Quality compounder here long-term I think. Buy-the-dip candidate on orderly pullbacks. The thesis works if AI bookings convert to revenue, margins stay tidy, and management keeps feeding shareholders while the hype cycle does its thing.

Quarter update said still building, still burning cash, with no sales yet, but the hope machine is humming. Solid-state battery dreams plus a slightly smaller loss than feared has traders yelling, range anxiety, begone. When the story kicks in, facts take the passenger seat and timelines ride in the trunk.

The bigger picture is that this is still a lab coat with a cap table. To win, they need repeatable cells, auto-grade yields, and partners who sign checks, not just memorandums. Fresh capital raises are part of the journey, and carmakers test patience like they test prototypes.

An upgrade from a big bank plus better-than-expected lending volume has this online lender stretching its legs. More loans flowing, better day-one economics on deals, and a new funding pact from a household-name asset manager all say the spigot is loosening.

But lending is a treadmill. You must keep acquiring customers, sell loans at decent prices, and manage credit like a hawk when the economy wobbles. Growth feels great until sell-through slows or loss rates creep up.

Headlines about potential government money in exchange for a small ownership stake lit a fire under the quantum crowd. Uncle Sam wants faster science, companies want a longer runway, and the promise of national-priority checks is a strong pairing.

Reality check: tomorrow’s computers for today’s stock price is always a spicy recipe. The tech is incredible but fragile, the path to everyday use is long, and any new financing, even friendly, can still dilute folks already on board. Contracts, milestones, and paying customers matter more than cool demos.

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