AI stocks are finding buyers again, but the macro backdrop is getting harder to ignore. Oil is rising on fresh Gulf tensions, the dollar is holding firm, and OpenAI’s new credit line shows how deeply the AI boom is moving into capital markets.
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Futures at a Glance📈
Futures are moving higher as traders look for a rebound after yesterday’s oil-driven sell-off. Fresh U.S. strikes on Iran have kept crude in focus, especially after Trump said the ceasefire is over. Still, chip strength is helping steady the Nasdaq, while jobless claims, existing home sales, and PepsiCo earnings give traders the next read on the day.
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What to Watch
Earnings (Premarket):
• PepsiCo, Inc. [PEP]
• The Simply Good Foods Company [SMPL]
• Byrna Technologies, Inc. [BYRN]
• Northern Technologies International Corporation [NTIC]
Earnings (Aftermarket):
• WD-40 Company [WDFC]
• Educational Development Corporation [EDUC]
Economic Reports:
• Weekly Jobless Claims (Jul. 4): 8:30 am
• Existing Home Sales (Jun.): 10:00 am
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Market Pulse
Chip Stocks Bounce, But Oil Keeps the Rally in Check
Asian shares climbed as semiconductor names recovered from heavy selling, but gains were capped by another jump in oil after fresh Gulf hostilities. The market read is that AI still has buyers on pullbacks, but crude is back to being the macro variable that can quickly tighten the whole setup.
The Dollar Holds Firm as Oil Revives Fed Worries
The dollar stayed near recent highs as Gulf tensions pushed oil higher, reviving concerns that energy prices could keep inflation pressure alive. That matters because a stronger dollar, higher crude, and rising Fed expectations are not the easiest backdrop for risk assets.
AI & Semiconductors
China May Let Top AI Firms Buy Nvidia H200 Chips
China is reportedly considering limited approvals for Alibaba, ByteDance, DeepSeek, and other AI leaders to buy Nvidia H200 chips. The move would be a major shift because Beijing has been trying to reduce reliance on foreign chips, but domestic AI demand may be moving faster than local supply can handle.
Mistral Pushes Into Physical AI
Mistral AI launched its first robotics model as Europe’s leading AI startup moves beyond chatbots and software into factories, warehouses, and industrial automation. That gives the AI trade another leg: models that do not just generate text but help automate physical work.
China & Supply Chain
CXMT Lines Up a $4.3 Billion Shanghai IPO
China’s top memory chipmaker CXMT will begin book-building for a $4.3 billion Shanghai IPO as Beijing pushes harder to fund domestic semiconductor champions. The listing keeps China’s chip independence story front and center, especially with memory demand tightening across AI, cloud, and consumer electronics.
China’s Factory Inflation Hits a Four-Year High
China’s producer inflation jumped to its highest level since 2022, adding pressure on manufacturers already dealing with weak domestic demand. The risk is margin compression: input costs are rising, but companies may not have enough pricing power to pass those costs through.
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Energy & Geopolitics
Oil Rises After Fresh U.S. Strikes on Iran
Oil prices moved higher after the U.S. launched new strikes against Iran, putting the Strait of Hormuz back at the center of the market’s inflation watch. Even without a full shipping shutdown, insurers, tanker operators, and energy traders are now pricing a much messier risk environment.
China Eases Fuel Export Curbs
China lifted refined fuel export restrictions for July, allowing more gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel shipments into the Asian market. That could help cool regional transportation-fuel prices, but it also shows how quickly refiners are trying to take advantage of stronger export margins.
Capital Markets & Deals
OpenAI Gets Its First Bank of America Loan
Bank of America extended a $520 million credit line to OpenAI, giving the AI leader another layer of financing ahead of a potential IPO. The story matters because AI is not just an equity-market theme anymore; it is becoming a major driver of credit, banking fees, and capital-markets competition.
States May Sue to Block the Paramount-Warner Deal
U.S. states could sue as soon as next week to block Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, according to Reuters. The deal still has strategic logic in a brutal streaming market, but state-level antitrust pressure could slow the timeline and raise the cost of getting it done.
Trivia: A single share of Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock has never been split. What does one share cost today?
Movers and Shakers
Corning [GLW]: Premarket Move: +6%
Corning rose after BofA raised its price target to $243 from $223, citing stronger demand in the company’s optical business. The AI buildout remains the key driver, with Corning’s fiber, glass, and advanced packaging exposure keeping the stock tied directly to the data-center infrastructure trade.
Micron Technology [MU]: Premarket Move: +4%
Micron moved higher after Barron’s highlighted the stock as a buy following the recent memory-chip selloff. The stock is still up more than 200% year to date, but the pullback has investors refocusing on AI-driven memory demand, pricing power, and the longer-term data-center cycle.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals [IONS]: Premarket Move: −8%
Ionis dropped even as recent coverage framed the stock as a potential buy after fresh analyst support. The healthcare name recently touched a new 52-week high of $86.74, so today’s move looks like profit-taking after a strong run rather than a clear break in the drug-development story.
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Everything Else
🚀 Investors are starting to look past the Mag 7, as the question shifts from who led the last cycle to which companies may be best equipped to lead the next one.
🛡️ Ukraine’s drone strikes inside Russia are keeping NATO on alert as the war’s long-range pressure keeps building.
🛢️ Trump’s Iran deal is being tested by ceasefire questions and Strait of Hormuz risk, keeping the energy market on edge.
💊 AstraZeneca shares moved after heart-drug trial results gave investors a fresh read on the company’s pharma pipeline.
🤖 SpaceXAI launched Grok 4.5 for coding and agentic tasks, adding another player to the AI model race.
🍎 Apple is spending $30 billion on Broadcom chips in a deal that will expand a Colorado factory and deepen its domestic supply push.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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