Consumer confidence is sliding, inflation worries are rising, and big purchases remain expensive to finance. Yet Americans are still spending.
Friday’s durable-goods and sentiment reports give you a fresh test of whether that resilience extends to the purchases households can most easily postpone.
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Theme: Big-Ticket Spending, Electronics, Appliances, Furniture, Autos, Financing, and Consumer Confidence
What Consumers Say and Do Are Diverging
August retail sales increased 1.2% from July and 6.0% from a year earlier, suggesting household spending remains surprisingly resilient.
Consumer surveys tell a very different story. Preliminary September sentiment fell to 47.8 from 51.7 in August, while year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. Expectations for personal finances and future business conditions also deteriorated.
That disconnect matters most when the purchase is expensive.
You can complain about grocery prices and still buy groceries. A $1,500 television, $2,000 refrigerator, new sofa, or $50,000 vehicle is easier to postpone.
What’s Driving It
Friday Is the Main Catalyst
August durable-goods orders arrive Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the University of Michigan’s final September consumer survey at 10:00 a.m.
July durable-goods orders increased 1.1% to $339.3 billion, giving us a relatively firm starting point. Friday will show whether demand for expensive manufactured products kept improving in August.
The sentiment report adds the consumer side of the equation.
If confidence remains depressed while spending and orders hold up, it suggests consumers feel worse than they behave. If big-ticket demand starts weakening too, the pessimism may finally be moving from surveys into actual purchases.
Replacement Cycles Can Only Stretch So Far
Big-ticket categories have another advantage: many purchases can be delayed, but not forever.
Consumers can keep an old laptop for another year, repair an appliance, postpone replacing a sofa, or squeeze another 20,000 miles out of a car. Eventually products break, technology becomes outdated, or the replacement simply becomes necessary.
Best Buy’s latest quarter may be one early sign of that shift. Comparable sales increased 4.1%, with growth across most major categories, and management raised full-year sales and earnings guidance.
The question is whether that improvement spreads across other expensive categories.
The Chain Reaction
High prices and financing costs pressure households → consumers postpone expensive purchases → replacement cycles stretch → pent-up demand builds → incomes or affordability improve → delayed purchases return → big-ticket retailers and manufacturers get a sharper rebound
What to Watch
Friday, focus on durable-goods orders, orders excluding transportation, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and buying conditions for large household items.
The most interesting outcome would be another split signal: consumers remaining deeply pessimistic while actual demand holds up. That would suggest household balance sheets and employment are still supporting spending even as people dislike the economic environment.
Best Buy (BBY)
What it does: Best Buy is the largest dedicated U.S. consumer-electronics retailer, selling computers, televisions, appliances, gaming products, phones, services, and other technology.
Why it fits: Few companies are more exposed to purchases consumers can postpone.
You generally do not need a new television or laptop this week, which made Best Buy vulnerable when pandemic-era electronics demand faded and higher inflation redirected household budgets toward necessities.
That makes the recent improvement important. If replacement cycles are finally waking up, Best Buy should see it early across several expensive categories.
What stands out: Q2 comparable sales increased 4.1%, with domestic comps up 4.5%. Computing, home theater, and emerging categories were particularly strong, while online comparable sales increased 5.1%.
Management responded by raising full-year comparable-sales guidance from a range of negative 1% to positive 1% to positive 1.9% to 3.0%. Adjusted EPS guidance also increased to $6.70 to $6.90.
Best Buy is also building advertising and marketplace businesses, which can improve economics without relying entirely on product margins.
What to watch: Computing, televisions, appliances, online sales, gross margin, Marketplace, advertising, and holiday guidance.
The Takeaway: Buy this if you want the cleanest play on the electronics replacement cycle finally improving.
Best Buy has already moved from declining demand toward positive comps, and Friday’s data could reinforce the idea that consumers are reopening their wallets for discretionary technology.
The risk is that recent strength fades if confidence deteriorates further or tariffs push electronics prices higher.
Whirlpool (WHR)
What it does: Whirlpool manufactures major household appliances, including refrigerators, washing machines, dryers, dishwashers, and cooking products.
Why it fits: Appliances sit somewhere between discretionary and necessary. Consumers can postpone replacing a refrigerator or washing machine, but only until the old one stops working.
Whirlpool therefore gives you direct exposure to both replacement demand and housing activity. New homes need appliances, existing homes eventually need replacements, and remodeling can generate another source of demand.
What stands out: Q2 organic net sales fell only 1.7%, but profitability remains the bigger issue. Ongoing EBIT margin was just 1.8% as Whirlpool dealt with weak industry demand and higher costs.
Management is fighting back through its largest North American price increase in more than a decade and a structural cost program expected to deliver more than $150 million of savings.
That creates considerable operating leverage if industry volumes improve. Whirlpool does not need enormous top-line growth for margins to recover from depressed levels.
What to watch: North American appliance demand, pricing, promotional activity, cost savings, housing turnover, margins, and free cash flow.
The Takeaway: Buy this if you want the higher-risk turnaround play on appliance replacement demand.
Whirlpool’s margins are already compressed, so successful pricing and cost reductions combined with even modest volume stabilization could produce a meaningful earnings improvement.
The risk is that weak housing activity and price-sensitive consumers keep industry demand depressed while higher prices cost Whirlpool market share.
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Williams-Sonoma (WSM)
What it does: Williams-Sonoma owns Pottery Barn, West Elm, Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn Kids and Teen, and other home-furnishing brands.
Why it fits: Furniture and home décor are among the easiest expensive purchases to postpone, particularly when housing turnover is weak.
Williams-Sonoma has nevertheless been outperforming the broader home-furnishings market, which makes it useful for separating a strong operator from a weak category.
What stands out: Q2 comparable brand revenue increased 6.2%, total revenue grew 6.7%, and every major brand posted positive comps. Operating margin reached 17.3% on an adjusted basis, and management raised its full-year outlook.
That is significant because the housing backdrop remains difficult. Williams-Sonoma is gaining market share rather than simply waiting for the category to recover.
Its largely digital business model and premium brands also provide better margins than many traditional furniture retailers.
What to watch: Pottery Barn, West Elm, comparable sales, housing turnover, promotions, inventory, and operating margin.
The Takeaway: Buy this if you want the strongest operator in a still-challenging home-furnishings market. Williams-Sonoma is already growing without much help from housing, so improved home sales or consumer confidence could add another tailwind.
The risk is that premium furniture demand eventually cracks if higher-income households become more cautious.
CarMax (KMX)
What it does: CarMax is the largest U.S. used-car retailer, with retail dealerships, wholesale auctions, financing, vehicle purchasing, and online capabilities.
Why it fits: Few purchases demonstrate the affordability problem better than a vehicle. Prices remain high, financing matters enormously, and monthly payments can determine whether a consumer buys now or waits.
Used vehicles should theoretically provide a cheaper option, but high borrowing costs have made even used cars difficult for many households to afford.
What stands out: Fiscal Q1 revenue increased 6.2% to $8.0 billion, while combined retail and wholesale unit sales rose 3.3%. Retail used units increased slightly, although comparable-store units still declined 0.8%.
CarMax has deliberately reduced gross profit per retail vehicle through more aggressive pricing to improve sales trends. That sacrifices some margin today in an attempt to restore volume and customer traffic.
The company’s enormous sourcing network is another advantage. It bought hundreds of thousands of vehicles directly from consumers and dealers, giving it control over inventory that smaller retailers cannot easily replicate.
What to watch: Retail unit sales, comparable units, average selling prices, loan approval rates, credit losses, vehicle margins, and financing spreads.
The Takeaway: Buy this if you want the direct play on auto affordability improving. Lower financing pressure could unlock customers who need a vehicle but have been priced out by monthly payments.
The risk is that weak credit conditions and affordability problems persist even if vehicle prices soften.
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General Motors (GM)
What it does: GM sells Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac, and Buick vehicles while operating financing, autonomous-driving, software, and other automotive businesses.
Why it fits: GM gives you the new-car side of big-ticket consumer spending, where pricing, incentives, financing, and household confidence all meet.
Unlike a retailer selling televisions or furniture, GM also has considerable exposure to commercial customers and some of the most profitable vehicle categories in the U.S., particularly pickups and large SUVs.
What stands out: GM remained the number-one U.S. automaker in Q2, selling nearly 715,000 vehicles despite a 4% drop in total volume. Demand for pickups and SUVs stayed strong, and GM maintained discipline around pricing and incentives.
North American adjusted EBIT margin reached 8.6%, up 2.5 percentage points year over year, while management raised full-year guidance.
The company also has several vehicles starting around $30,000 or below, giving it ways to serve customers who cannot stretch toward expensive trucks and SUVs.
What to watch: U.S. retail sales, pricing, incentives, pickup and SUV demand, GM Financial credit performance, EV losses, inventories, and tariff costs.
The Takeaway: Buy this if you want the profitable new-vehicle leader rather than a pure consumer turnaround. GM is generating strong margins even before affordability meaningfully improves, giving it upside if financing conditions eventually become easier.
The risk is that higher incentives or weakening credit quality begin eating into the pricing discipline supporting current profits.
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