New year, new expectations.

This week leans into companies where 2026 guidance, demand signals, or a reset story could matter more than last year’s tape.

The goal is simple: find setups where one clean update can change the conversation.

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Netflix

Ticker: NFLX | Catalyst: The streaming king turns into a cash-flow adult

Netflix is trying to graduate from the phase where the market only cares about subscriber adds. The next chapter is whether it can keep growth steady while building a business that prints cash with less drama. The ad tier is the big swing here. It is no longer a side quest, it is a real lever that can lift revenue per user without leaning only on price hikes. If the company shows it can monetize attention while keeping engagement sticky, investors will treat it like a durable compounder instead of a headline trade.

The other quiet edge is global scale. Netflix is one of the few media platforms that can spread content costs across a massive base, which matters when everyone else is still fighting for profitability. If management keeps the message tight, growth is steady, ads are ramping, free cash flow is improving, the market usually stops nitpicking and starts paying up again.

What to watch: Subscriber trends versus churn, ad tier adoption and pricing, and free cash flow commentary. If ad monetization rises without hurting engagement, the stock can keep wearing a premium.

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Adobe

Ticker: ADBE | Catalyst: Subscription stickiness plus a sentiment reset

Adobe is the kind of business that gets yelled at on social media, then quietly renewed on a corporate card. The question for 2026 is not whether people will use the tools. They will. The question is whether packaging, pricing, and new workflows can translate into cleaner net new growth without creating a backlash that slows adoption.

Right now, Adobe’s opportunity is to make the story feel simple again. It sells mission-critical software to creators and businesses, and switching costs are real. If it can show steady subscription momentum and a clear path for upsell, investors do not need a heroic growth rate to get interested. They just need consistency.

There is also a psychological angle. When a stock has had a choppy period, it takes only a couple of solid quarters and calm guidance for buyers to come back. Adobe does not need to be loved. It just needs to be trusted again.

What to watch: Net new ARR, churn signals, pricing mix, and guidance tone. If management can make the growth outlook feel dependable, the multiple can firm up quickly.

Costco

Ticker: COST | Catalyst: The defensive growth machine that people treat like a habit

Costco is basically retail with a cheat code: membership. The real product is trust. People walk in expecting a deal, leave with a cart full of things they did not plan to buy, and then renew anyway. When consumers get picky, Costco often looks even better because it sells value in bulk and does not need to play discount games every week to keep traffic flowing.

The market loves Costco for the same reason shoppers do, predictability. It is not the highest upside story, but it tends to be one of the cleaner ones when the macro gets weird. If the economy wobbles, Costco can hold up because households still prioritize staples and savings. If the economy is fine, Costco still wins because it keeps taking share. It is the rare name that can be defensive and growth without the sentence sounding silly.

What to watch: Comparable sales, membership renewal rates, and any margin commentary. If traffic stays strong and renewals hold, the premium usually stays glued on.

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Visa

Ticker: V | Catalyst: Spending resilience with a side plot of legal noise

Visa is still one of the cleanest business models on the market. Commerce happens, payments run through the network, Visa takes a cut. The stock rarely needs a flashy product launch to work. It usually moves on the boring stuff, volume trends, cross-border activity, and what management says about the trajectory of consumer and travel spending.

The headline risk is always the same, regulation and litigation. Those stories can put a ceiling on sentiment in the short term, even when fundamentals are fine. But Visa has historically been a grinder. If volumes are healthy, the business keeps compounding while investors argue about the headlines.

For a retail reader, the simplest way to frame it is this: if you believe people will keep tapping cards and traveling, Visa tends to keep collecting. The main job is not to panic on scary legal headlines unless the fundamentals actually crack.

What to watch: Payment volume, cross-border trends, and commentary on pricing and legal exposure. If volume holds up and guidance stays steady, the market often treats legal noise as background static.

Lockheed Martin

Ticker: LMT | Catalyst: Backlog visibility with a valuation that is not asking for perfection

Defense stocks trade on two things: budgets and execution. Lockheed tends to have visibility because backlog and long-cycle programs create a steadier runway than most industrial names. When geopolitics stays tense, the demand narrative is rarely the problem. The market’s focus shifts to whether the company can deliver cleanly, protect margins, and return cash without stepping on rakes.

Lockheed also sits in that sweet spot where the stock does not need a hype wave to work. If the business stays steady and capital return remains consistent, investors will show up, especially when they want something less correlated to consumer spending or the latest tech mood swing.

This is not a name that usually doubles overnight. It is a name that can quietly do its job while you focus on other things. In a market that feels crowded with high-expectation stories, that can be a feature, not a bug.

What to watch: Program updates, margin stability, and capital return plans. If delivery stays clean and guidance is steady, the “sleep well at night” bid can show up fast.

Final Word

This week is a true reset list. Netflix and Adobe are about proving momentum is real and repeatable, not just a good quarter. Costco is the anchor that keeps acting like a habit. Visa is the quiet toll collector on global spending. Lockheed is the visibility and cash-return play.

Pick your lane, set alerts on the key tells, and let the next round of updates decide which narratives deserve more capital.

That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.

Best Regards,

— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club

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