The Quiet AI Challenger That Could Surprise Wall Street

A fast-moving AI upstart in creative software is beating adoption targets and raising revenue guidance.

With competitors still chasing similar tools, this name could be setting up for a reversal that rewards early entries.

Here’s that and four more on the ETC Sunday Watchlist:

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Adobe Inc.

Ticker: ADBE | Market Cap: $147.9B | Catalyst: AI Product Adoption and Raised Full-Year Guidance

Adobe shares are down 25 percent year to date, but its AI-first tools including Firefly, Acrobat AI Assistant, and GenStudio are seeing faster-than-expected adoption. Management has increased fiscal 2025 revenue guidance to as high as $23.6 billion, with EPS expected between $20.50 and $20.70, both higher than earlier projections.

Firefly’s integration across Creative Cloud and its planned mobile launch later this year could bring in a much larger user base. The company is also adding support for third-party AI models, which expands creative capabilities and provides flexibility against large competitors.

Competition from Microsoft and Google is intense, but Adobe’s portfolio is focused on creative professionals and marketing teams, which allows for higher monetization per customer. Shares are trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which signals near-term caution but also sets up the potential for a bounce if the company delivers another earnings beat. Investors who want a contrarian entry may find this an important moment to act, particularly if AI annual recurring revenue continues to move ahead of the $250 million target.

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First Solar Inc.

Ticker: FSLR | Market Cap: $19.3B | Catalyst: Earnings Beat and Upgraded Price Target

First Solar posted second quarter EPS of $3.18, well above the $2.66 consensus, with revenue reaching $1.1 billion. UBS responded by increasing its price target to $275, citing supportive policy conditions and the company’s unique U.S.-approved design for near-term deployment.

The company holds nearly $500 million in cash and has no debt, giving it the flexibility to scale production as demand for domestic solar capacity rises. Extended tax credits through 2036 and new projects in the pipeline strengthen its position in the renewable energy sector.

Shares have pulled back slightly after the CEO sold $5.1 million in shares, which could create an opening for buyers ahead of the next contract or policy announcement.

Shopify Inc.

Ticker: SHOP | Total Assets: $187.5B | Catalyst: Q2 Earnings Beat and Growth in AI and International Markets

Shopify rose almost 20 percent in a single day after reporting 31 percent year-over-year revenue growth and strong gross merchandise volume. Management guided third quarter revenue growth to the mid-to-high 20 percent range, easing earlier concerns about potential tariff impacts.

AI-powered merchant tools and an expansion into European markets are now leading its growth. Analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish, with multiple price target increases in recent weeks, including Citigroup at $195 and Evercore ISI at $170.

While the stock trades at more than 80 times earnings, the combination of accelerating top-line growth and expanding market reach makes it a core e-commerce momentum story going into year-end.

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Clorox Co.

Ticker: CLX | Market Cap: $16.9B | Catalyst: Supply Chain Recovery and Margin Expansion

Clorox is recovering its supply chain after last year’s cybersecurity breach, and second quarter results showed gross margins climbing to 42 percent, the best in more than two years. Analysts see more room for improvement in operating leverage as raw material costs decline.

The company retains strong pricing power, and demand for household and cleaning products remains steady despite weaker consumer sentiment in some categories. Long-term investors also benefit from a 3.2 percent dividend yield and a 46-year payout history.

Shares remain about 15 percent below 2024 highs, leaving room for a move higher if margin recovery continues.

Lockheed Martin Corp.

Ticker: LMT | Market Cap: $102.1B | Catalyst: Multi-Billion Dollar Contract Wins

Lockheed Martin secured more than $4.2 billion in new defense contracts, including a $4.23 billion award to expand production of the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System. Additional contracts cover submarine electronic warfare systems and upgrades to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptor program.

These awards bring the total value of key programs into the tens of billions, ensuring multi-year revenue visibility through at least 2028. Shares are down 9 percent this year, but the growing backlog and steady defense spending provide a strong base for recovery.

If sentiment toward defense contractors improves, the stock could move back toward the $500 range in a relatively short period.

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This week’s edge is in companies with strong catalysts and attractive risk-reward setups.

From an AI-focused creative software leader to renewable energy and defense names with clear growth paths, along with consumer and e-commerce plays showing renewed momentum, these are the types of positions that can lead the next leg higher.

Staying early could be the difference between catching the breakout or chasing it later.

That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.

Best Regards,

— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club

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