This company is not trying to win the home internet race. It sells always-on satellite connectivity for places that do not have towers, fiber, or patience.
The stock has been punished for slower near-term growth and louder competition headlines, but the business underneath still looks like a steady cash generator.
Investors Beware Now (Sponsored)
The man who predicted the 2008 crash and 2020 says today's soaring markets are NOT a bubble - they're something far stranger and more dangerous.
He says it's about to change everything you know about money.
Full story here.
What Iridium Actually Does
Iridium Communications Inc (NASDAQ: IRDM) runs a global satellite network built for reliability, coverage, and mission-critical connectivity.
Think voice and data links for ships, aircraft, remote industrial sites, logistics fleets, NGOs, and governments. It is the connectivity provider when the map turns blank.
That matters because “satellite” is not one market.
There is broadband for consumers, there is backhaul, and there are narrowband and specialized services for safety and industrial telemetry.
Iridium’s lane has historically been the last category—less flashy than streaming Netflix on a boat, but often stickier and higher value per customer.
Why The Stock Has Been So Weak
IRDM is down about 42% year to date and near the low end of its 52-week range. The drawdown is mostly a narrative reset:
The company tightened 2025 service revenue growth expectations
PNT revenue has been delayed, pushing out an incremental growth engine
Government subscriber counts have been a soft spot
Competition fear has resurfaced as Amazon expands Project Kuiper, and Starlink remains the headline magnet
Put simply, the market started treating anything satellite-adjacent as a zero-sum cage match, even though Iridium’s use cases are not the same as consumer broadband.
Historic Shift Incoming (Sponsored)
Every empire believes its currency will outlive history.
None ever has.
For over 250 years, global powers rose on confidence and collapsed under debt, division, and excess spending.
The warning signs are now impossible to ignore: $37 trillion in national debt, inflation quietly eating purchasing power, and a political system dependent on endless printing.
Markets are already responding as gold breaks $4,200 an ounce and silver pushes past $50, outperforming the S&P 500’s 13% gain this year.
This is not speculation — it’s capital repositioning ahead of currency risk.
Moving a portion of an IRA or 401(k) into physical gold and silver can still be done legally, tax-free, and penalty-free before volatility accelerates.
Get the Free Guide
*This is an advertisement. If you no longer wish to receive promotional emails, please unsubscribe here. Or write to: 5005 Lyndon B. Johnson Fwy. Suite 350, Dallas, TX 75244
The Bull Case
1) This is still a cash-flow business
One of the cleaner datapoints in the IRDM story is cash generation.
The backdrop you shared flags a cash flow yield around the high teens, which is rare for a company with global infrastructure, recurring service revenue, and ongoing product expansion.
That cash creates options:
Support a dividend that currently screens around 3.5%
Repurchase shares when the market is pessimistic
Fund new services without stretching the balance sheet
If growth is temporarily slower, cash is what keeps the long thesis from breaking.
2) Commercial IoT keeps moving the right way
Commercial IoT revenue was up 7% in Q3 2025, with expectations for double-digit growth for the full year.
IoT is the classic Iridium sweet spot—small devices, high reliability, global coverage, recurring usage.
It is not the segment that makes headlines, but it is the one that can compound quietly and keep churn low.
3) Government work is not going away
Engineering and support services revenue surged more than 30% in Q3 2025 due to government contracts.
Even if subscriber counts are choppy, this line item reinforces that Iridium remains embedded in government workflows where reliability and coverage matter more than cheapest price.
4) The 2026 wildcard is direct-to-device
Project Stardust, described as a 3GPP direct-to-device service, is set for testing in 2025 with a planned launch in 2026.
This is the optionality piece. If Iridium can turn its network into a practical layer for direct device connectivity, it expands the story beyond its traditional niche without needing to become a consumer broadband provider.
Investors tend to re-rate these businesses when a new revenue stream becomes believable, not when it is already fully in the numbers.
5) PNT can become a second pillar
The acquisition of Satelles is designed to establish a new PNT service stream. PNT is the kind of category that can look boring right up until it becomes strategically important.
If timing delays are temporary rather than structural, PNT can still be the next leg that changes the growth profile.
Want to make sure you never miss a stock recommendation?
Elite Trade Club now offers text alerts — so you get trending stocks and market-moving news sent straight to your phone before the bell. Email’s great. Texts are faster.
The Bear Case
1) Competition can still compress perception and pricing
Even if Iridium’s core is different from Kuiper and Starlink, Wall Street will keep bundling satellite names together during hype cycles. That can pressure valuation and keep the stock range-bound.
2) Growth deceleration can turn into multiple compression
If service revenue growth stays tighter than expected, the market may decide IRDM is a mature utility-like asset and refuse to pay for future optionality. This is especially relevant after a period where investors paid up for anything tied to space.
3) Government demand is not always smooth
Government subscriber softness was flagged as a contributor to the 2025 narrative reset.
Government revenue can be sticky, but it can also be lumpy—budget timing, procurement cycles, program changes. If that softness persists, investors will treat it as a durable headwind.
4) Direct-to-device execution risk
Direct-to-device is attractive because it is big. It is also risky for the same reason. Timelines slip, standards evolve, and partners matter. If the 2026 plan slides or arrives underwhelming, the market could punish the stock again for over-promising a new chapter.
American Alternative Assets Offer (Sponsored)
They called you "deplorable."
Mocked your values.
Drained America's strength.
They'd love nothing more than for you to stay down.
But now, it's your move.
With Trump's agenda, you've got a chance to fight back and protect what's yours.
China is coming for the dollar. Wars may spread across the globe. They're counting on you to sit still while your savings take the hit.
But you're not going to let that happen.
This "Patriot's Tax Shield" lets you defend your wealth with real, solid gold.
Our exclusive, free wealth protection guide shows you how to use Trump's vision to lock down your savings—your freedom, your future.
Plus, for a few lucky individuals, we're honoring Trump's historic return with an exclusive free gift.
Grab your FREE GUIDE NOW
CLICK HERE TO GET YOUR GUIDE NOW
PS: Please don't wait—this is your moment to take action. Download your Wealth Protection Guide now, claim your free gift, and see how Trump's victory could spark major gains for gold.
Click here now to see how to stop them in their tracks!
What I’d Watch Next
Commercial IoT growth staying in that high-single to double-digit zone
Any evidence that PNT revenue timing is stabilizing rather than drifting
Updates on Project Stardust milestones—testing progress, partner alignment, commercial terms
Balance sheet trend—management expects leverage to decline meaningfully by 2025, which matters for re-rating
Capital return pace—dividend sustainability and whether buybacks show up more aggressively at depressed prices
My Take
IRDM looks like a classic market mood swing: a steady business that got repriced as if its future depends on winning a different fight
The setup is not about pretending competition does not exist—it is about recognizing Iridium’s niche is still valuable, still cash generative, and now trading at a much more forgiving level than earlier in the cycle.
The cleanest bull path is simple: stabilize growth expectations, keep printing cash, and let 2026 direct-to-device and PNT optionality earn a second look.
If those catalysts firm up while the dividend and buybacks keep working in the background, IRDM does not need hero growth to rebound—it just needs the market to stop pricing it like yesterday’s story.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
Click here to get our daily newsletter straight to your cell for free.
P.S. Just like this newsletter, it's 100% free*, and you can stop at any time by replying STOP.
