Every now and then, the market tosses you a business that’s quietly crushing fundamentals but getting zero love on price.
That’s where this stock sits today.
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*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.
Strategic Positioning
Corpay (NYSE: CPAY) used to go by the name Fleetcor, but the rebrand in 2024 better reflects what it’s become: a global payments platform, not just a fleet card company.
It helps businesses manage fuel, tolls, lodging, travel, and vendor payments from one ecosystem.
Think of it as the connective tissue that keeps corporate expense management from becoming a nightmare. The magic here is scale.
With $21 billion in market cap and customers across North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia, Corpay can handle billions in transactions while layering on services like foreign exchange and cross-border payments.
The recently inked multi-year deal with the International Tennis Federation shows how the company leverages its platform beyond just trucking fleets, becoming a global payments partner for institutions that need reliable, low-friction, cross-border solutions.
Return on equity sits above 30%, which tells you management knows how to put capital to work.
And unlike the high-growth, cash-burning fintechs of the last cycle, Corpay generates plenty of profit to reinvest and buy back shares.
Action: At ~$298, Corpay trades around 13–14x forward earnings. For a business growing revenue at 12–13% and compounding EPS even faster, that’s attractive. A starter buy in the high-$290s looks reasonable for long-term investors. |
Recent Momentum
The last quarter told a clear story of steady growth, with no fireworks. Revenue came in at $1.1 billion, up nearly 13% year over year, and EPS of $5.13 beat expectations by a couple of pennies.
Not jaw-dropping, but solid execution. Margins held up nicely, and the balance sheet remains strong with current and quick ratios above 1.
On the ownership side, the institutions are all over this. Vanguard, JPMorgan, Orbis, and Boston Partners all added to their stakes in recent quarters.
Nearly 99% of the float is institutionally owned, which usually signals two things, that Wall Street knows the business is sound, and short-term price swings often come from rotation, not fundamentals.
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The Setup for the Stock at These Levels
Owning Corpay here is less about chasing a moonshot and more about compounding:
Sticky products: Businesses rely on fuel cards, travel management, and corporate payments that are hard to rip out once embedded.
Cross-border upside: With FX volatility and global supply chains, Corpay’s international payments business could become a bigger profit driver.
Operational leverage: Revenue growth outpaces costs, which means EPS has room to climb faster than sales.
Buybacks: Corpay has used its cash to shrink the share count, boosting EPS growth beyond revenue growth.
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Valuation Check
At ~20x trailing earnings and 13–14x forward, Corpay screens as a value play compared to many peers in financial transaction services, which often trade higher.
The PEG ratio sits near 1.1, not screaming cheap, but fair given the consistency of growth. On a price-to-sales basis, it’s around 5x, which is in line with or slightly below peers.
Analysts are more optimistic than the market. Average price targets hover near $399, with some stretching to $440, suggesting 30–45% upside from here if the multiple normalizes.
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The clock is ticking.
2025’s final quarter could be the last big rally before the reset of 2026.
Markets are moving fast:
Fed signals hint at cuts
Oil shocks roil supply chains
AI & defense spending explode
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But wait too long, and Wall Street takes it first.
Catalysts to Watch
Earnings beats: Even small EPS surprises can push sentiment higher when valuations are compressed.
Cross-border growth: Watch traction from partnerships like the Tennis Federation deal.
Buybacks: More repurchases will magnify EPS growth.
Analyst upgrades: The stock is stuck in “moderate buy” land. A wave of strong buys could re-rate it higher.
Macro trends: Stable or falling rates would make financial services stocks like this more appealing.
Risks
Competition: Payments is crowded, and while Corpay has a moat in fleet and corporate expense management, other fintechs and banks circle the space.
Economic slowdown: If travel or fuel spend contracts, transaction volumes dip.
Debt load: With debt-to-equity around 1.5x, the balance sheet is fine but not bulletproof. Rising rates could sting.
Concentration in institutions: With nearly all shares in big hands, liquidity shocks can exaggerate moves in either direction.
Execution risk: Expanding globally and layering on services requires tight execution. Missteps could drag growth below double digits.
Final Take
Corpay isn’t a flashy name in fintech, but that’s part of its appeal.
It’s a boringly consistent business that helps companies manage essential costs, throws off strong cash flow, and compounds earnings over time.
Right now, the stock trades like the story has stalled, even though the numbers tell a different tale.
For long-term investors, that mismatch looks like an opportunity. Build a starter position now, add if it dips closer to $270, and let the business do the heavy lifting.
This is the kind of stock you tuck away and revisit in a few years, and likely be glad you did.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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