If you want AI exposure without betting on science projects, this one’s for you. Look to start on weakness, then press the trade only as the metrics confirm.
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Strategic Positioning
UiPath (NYSE: PATH) is building the boring-but-beautiful plumbing that lets enterprises automate real work.
Think bots that process invoices, read documents, move data between systems, and now, thanks to “agentic” AI, take multi-step actions with light supervision.
Q2 FY26 revenue was $362M (+14% YoY), annualized recurring revenue hit $1.723B (+11% YoY), DBNRR sits at 108%, and gross margins are a software-snug 82% GAAP / 84% non-GAAP.
There’s $1.52B in cash, positive $42M operating cash flow, and $45M non-GAAP FCF. The core engine is steady, sticky, and funded.
Strategically, the company is leaning into agentic automation, orchestrating AI agents, robots, and humans.
Partnerships with HCLTech and Deloitte (including UiPath’s own SAP S/4HANA migration) matter because services channels are how big transformation projects scale.
Meanwhile, Gartner keeps stamping them as a Leader in RPA (again). UiPath’s pitch isn’t one model to rule them all, it’s orchestration.
Let your LLMs, apps, and people actually finish the task, not just predict a token. That’s the unlock.
Action: Start a position $11–$12 on dips; add above $13 on evidence of ARR acceleration or cleaner net new ARR. |
Recent Momentum
Management didn’t mail it in this quarter.
They exceeded the high end of guidance on key metrics, logged $31M net new ARR, and posted $62M in non-GAAP operating income (versus a small GAAP operating loss of $20M, largely stock-comp and non-cash items).
The tone was notably confident, as customers are moving from pilots to production deployments, particularly on agentic use cases (UiPath says ~450 customers already using the new stack since May).
Guidance isn’t shy either.
For Q3 FY26, revenue is $390–$395M, ARR $1.771–$1.776B. For the full year, revenue $1.571–$1.576B and ARR $1.834–$1.839B, with ~$340M non-GAAP operating income.
In plain English, that means mid-teens growth, improving profitability, and plenty of cash to keep building (or buying) where needed.
Street sentiment is mixed (perfect for upside). BMO trimmed PT to $12.50 on ARR caution; other fair-value takes hover ~$13 and up.
That’s fine. You want “prove-it” quarters, not euphoria. If ARR ticks up and agentic wins broaden, the multiple can expand from here.
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The Setup You’re Actually Betting On
Buying here means you’re underwriting three simple ideas:
Automation + AI is a now-thing, not a someday-thing. CFOs want efficiency today. UiPath sells payback math, not AI vibes. That plays in any rate regime.
Orchestration beats point tools. Enterprises will use many LLMs, ERPs, and niche apps; someone has to choreograph the mess. UiPath’s platform is designed to be that conductor.
Recurring revenue compounds. With 98% gross dollar retention and 108% DBNRR, the base is sticky. As agentic projects move from pilot to production, seat count and usage expand.
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Valuation Check
At ~$11–$12, PATH screens expensive on P/E (trailing is noisy at 300x+), but earnings aren’t the lens.
This is a recurring revenue + FCF story with mid-80s gross margin and rising non-GAAP operating income.
On EV/ARR, PATH sits at a discount to peak automation multiples and below many high-margin workflow peers given its scale and cash balance.
If ARR holds low-double-digit and nudges higher as agentic adoption broadens, modest re-rating + operating leverage can do a lot of work.
You don’t need bubble valuations, just steady beats, visible ARR adds, and proof that agentic isn’t a press-release hobby.
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Catalysts to Watch
ARR cadence: Net new ARR stepping up from $31M would quiet the growth decel crowd.
Agentic case studies: More named wins, larger deal sizes, and production workloads (not pilots).
Partner pull-through: HCLTech/Deloitte-led programs that show repeatable playbooks (SAP, finance, claims, trade ops).
Operating leverage: March toward ~$340M non-GAAP op income; watch opex discipline even as AI investments continue.
Cash deployment: Smart tuck-ins (like 3GTMS earlier this year) that expand the platform without bloat.
Risks
Let’s be adults about it:
ARR throttling: If macro or deal scrutiny slows expansions, DBNRR can sag and the stock gets de-risked fast.
“AI does it all” narrative: Some buyers believe LLMs make RPA obsolete. (They don’t, but narratives move budgets.) UiPath must keep proving that orchestration + agents beats a lone model.
Execution on agentic: 450 customers testing is great; you need broad, repeatable production use. If agentic becomes a science fair, the multiple compresses.
Competitive noise: Microsoft, ServiceNow, and others are bundling automation. Price pressure and seat encroachment are real in the enterprise.
Stock-comp optics: GAAP profitability will lag non-GAAP. If SBC drifts up while growth doesn’t, expect pushback.
Sentiment swings: It’s a mid-cap with AI in the description—volatility is part of the package. Size positions accordingly.
Action Plan (Tactical)
Starter buy: $11–$12 on dips; you’re paying for a durable ARR engine with optionality.
Add on strength: Above $13 if net new ARR improves and agentic wins show up in backlog/expansions.
Near-term target: $14–$15 on steady beats and clean Q3/Q4 execution.
Stretch target: $16–$18 if ARR growth re-accelerates and partners scale deployments.
Risk control: $10.25 stop (or a mental stop) if ARR/DBNRR stall or guidance softens.
What to monitor: Net new ARR, DBNRR, partner-sourced deals, operating income trajectory, and cash-flow consistency.
Final Take
This isn’t a bet-the-farm AI moonshot. It’s the enterprise workflow layer that turns AI into finished tasks and measurable savings.
The quarter was solid (beats, cash-flow positive, healthy margins), guidance is constructive, and the balance sheet gives you time to be right.
Skeptics still anchor to 2022-style fears, but the operating data says the platform is maturing, not fading.
If you want practical AI exposure where customers sign checks for productivity, rather than demos, this is your lane.
Build on weakness, add on proof, and let compounding ARR plus operating leverage do the heavy lifting.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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