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If you like boring cash and spicy upside, look into this.
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*Examples that we provide of share price increases pertaining to a particular Issuer from one referenced date to another represent an arbitrarily chosen time period and are no indication whatsoever of future stock prices for that Issuer and are of no predictive value. Our stock profiles are intended to highlight certain companies for YOUR further investigation; they are NOT stock recommendations or constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities.
Strategic Positioning
Iridium Communications (NASDAQ: IRDM) runs a low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite network that actually covers the entire planet.
Yes, poles included. Its sweet spot is narrowband L-band service of voice, data, push-to-talk, aviation safety links, maritime and land IoT.
That niche is nerdy but sticky, with rugged devices, mission-critical use cases, and customers (commercial and government) who value reliability more than sizzle.
Three things matter here:
Recurring Service Revenues. Hardware ships once, service bills every month. That mix supports margin resilience when hardware cycles wobble.
Everywhere Coverage. Unlike cell towers (or even some LEO competitors), Iridium’s architecture is built for middle of nowhere.
Maritime, aviation, energy, logistics, if you need comms where LTE taps out, you pay up.New Growth Vectors. Iridium NTN Direct (3GPP-standard, 5G-powered non-terrestrial network) aims to let narrowband devices and, eventually, mass-market modules talk straight to space.
Recent tie-ups with Deutsche Telekom, Syniverse, and a memorandum with Karrier One show real carrier/partner interest.
Add Satellite Time & Location (think GPS resilience / anti-spoofing), midband Certus upgrades, and personal safety devices, and you’ve got optionality beyond the legacy handset.
Management trimmed 2025 service-revenue growth guidance to roughly 3–5% (from 5–7%) thanks to a maritime broadband transition, USAID voice churn, and pushing some PNT dollars into 2026.
Annoying, sure. But it was not thesis breaking.
The longer-term ambition is still roughly $1B in annual service revenue by 2030, built on the same add endpoints, upsell capabilities playbook.
Action Plan
Starter Buy: $18.50–$20.50 to begin a core position.
Add on Strength: Above $22 on confirmation (service growth stabilizes, a D2D/NTN Direct commercial launch, or visible PNT deals sliding into ’26).
Near-Term Target: $24–$26 as sentiment normalizes.
Stretch Target: $30–$33 if service growth re-accelerates to the mid-single digits and PNT/NTN revenues actually print.
Risk Guard: Reassess or trim below $17 (new lows and guide gets cut again).
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Recent Momentum
The tape is brutal. -32% YTD, sitting near the bottom end of its 52-week range.
That’s mostly multiple compression as growth slowed and management nudged guidance down. Offsetting the gloom here is:
Partnership Flow: The Deutsche Telekom, Syniverse, and Karrier One announcements show the 3GPP NTN Direct path isn’t science fiction.
Carriers want satellite failover and IoT reach without towers.Dividend Check: ~3.0% yield via a $0.15 quarterly dividend. Not a bond proxy, but you’re literally getting paid while you wait for catalysts.
Unit Economics Still Work: Service revenue is the high-margin piece.
As Iridium adds endpoints (IoT sensors, safety devices, aviation links), the incremental margin typically improves because the constellation is built and paid for.Cap Allocation Discipline: No empire-building rockets or vanity projects. It’s sell connectivity, harvest cash, fund targeted R&D.
If you’re waiting for a clean beat and raise, that might take a quarter or two. But capitulation swings like this often set up respectable base-hits for patient buyers.
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The Setup You’re Actually Betting On
You’re not buying a rocket company. You’re underwriting three practical ideas:
Sticky, Mission-Critical ARPU. Ships, planes, energy sites, remote fleets, when the alternative is no signal, churn stays low.
A 3–5% growth year isn’t sexy, but ASP discipline and device expansion still compound.NTN Direct (D2D/IoT) Standardization. 3GPP standards bring carrier-grade interoperability.
Even if smartphones are Phase 2/3, narrowband IoT and modules can scale earlier. One or two real commercial launches could re-rate the growth narrative.PNT / STL as GPS Hedge. GPS spoofing/jamming headlines aren’t going away.
A resilient satellite time & location signal gives governments and critical infrastructure a Plan B. That’s not a TAM you need to explain to a CIO.
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Valuation Check
At about $20 a share, you’re looking at:
P/E ~20x on depressed growth (for a satellite utility-like service book, reasonable).
Dividend ~3%, which is rare air in space.
A Network with Operating Leverage. The constellation is up with each new device or use case drops through at attractive incremental margins.
Is this cheap versus high-growth SaaS? Wrong comp.
Versus other communications utilities with recurring revenue and a dividend, the setup is at least fair, arguably discounted after the guide cut.
Catalysts to Watch
Commercial NTN Direct Milestones: Look for first paying deployments with carrier partners (even pilot revenue matters).
PNT Contract Visibility: Firming 2026 timing, initial government/critical-infra wins, or integration into broader resilience programs.
Maritime/Aviation Updates: Evidence that the maritime broadband transition is bottoming; aviation safety services expanding.
IoT Endpoints Growth: Any acceleration in connected devices (modules certified, new OEMs onboard) is a clean, repeatable KPI.
Capital Returns: Dividend continuity (or growth) and any opportunistic buybacks near trough multiples.
Risks
Competitive Overhang. Direct-to-cell initiatives (ASTS, Lynk), sat-assist on spectrum holders, and broadband players bundling narrowband as an add-on.
If pricing compresses, IRDM’s edge must be reliability and global coverage and standards.Standard Slippage. 3GPP is great, but device certification, carrier onboarding, and module availability can slip.
A long gap between MOUs and monetization will test patience.Guide Drift. Management already trimmed 2025 growth. A second trim without clear 2026 offsets (PNT/NTN) would force another leg down.
Government Mix. It’s a feature (sticky) and a bug (budget/timing risk). If awards shift right, modeling gets noisier.
Leverage/Capex Cycles. Constellations aren’t cheap. While Iridium’s past build is done, any surprise spend (refresh, capacity adds) could crimp near-term FCF.
Size your position like a cash-generating specialty telco with call options on new use cases, not like a rocket ride.
Key Actions
Buy Zone: Start $18.50–$20.50; scale only if the story stabilizes.
Add on Proof: Above $22 with tangible signs (NTN Direct live deals, IoT endpoint growth, or firmer PNT timing).
Targets: $24–$26 near term; $30–$33 if growth re-accelerates and new vectors monetize.
Stop / Re-Think: Below $17 on renewed guide cuts or lost carrier momentum.
What to Monitor Weekly: Carrier/partner news on NTN, IoT module certifications, maritime/aviation channel checks, and any PNT procurement chatter.
Final Take
This isn’t the to the moon trade, it’s more like back to orbit.
You’re buying a real, working network with sticky customers, a respectable dividend, and a couple of under-appreciated catalysts in D2D/NTN and PNT.
The market just marked the stock down because growth slowed for a year.
That happens. If even one of those new vectors shows up in revenue, today’s multiple looks too low.
If you want a steady satellite name with income and optionality, and you’re okay waiting a few quarters for the narrative to thaw, this dip looks buyable.
Build it on weakness, add on proof, and let gravity (cash flow) do some heavy lifting.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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