Fed punts on rate cuts 🏈

Good afternoon, Insiders!

Welcome to the first macro update of this month. It’s been a hectic few weeks in the market, but the stock market has proven surprisingly resilient despite widespread economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Recent data from the Fed meeting and April JOBS report have had a strong impact on equity markets in recent sessions. This note will cover the economic outlook in the United States and other global markets. It will also cover some of the brewing geopolitical risks, which could be inflationary.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 has continued to hold its ground this year, rallying by circa 9% YTD. While the market has been largely concerned about a potential rebound in inflation, a positive JOBS report this month helped to appease bears.

A second wave of inflation still seems credible, especially as geopolitical risks continue to elevate. Moreover, economic risks in key countries like China and Japan have risen in the past few weeks, which could impact global equity markets.

The US economy is not likely in the clear yet, as the Federal Reserve needs to prove it can bring inflation down and potentially deliver several rate cuts this year.

April JOBS Report

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