Everyone’s talking Tesla robotaxis and Uber’s dominance, but a quieter setup is forming.
This company is booking record riders, buying back stock, and just locked in a partnership that could flip the narrative.
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Strategic Positioning
Lyft (NASDAQ: LYFT) has long been tagged the smaller rival, but don’t sleep on what’s happening. The company just signed a partnership with Waymo in Nashville to provide end-to-end fleet management for autonomous cabs.
That shows Lyft is positioning itself to stay relevant no matter how fast autonomy takes off.
What makes this deal different is scope. Lyft isn’t just hosting Waymo cars on its app, it’s running the back-end. Think vehicle maintenance, depots, and fleet infrastructure.
That means Lyft isn’t trying to out-engineer the autonomous leaders but embedding itself as the logistics layer for their rollout.
In a world where robotaxis could dominate, being the operating partner may prove just as valuable as being the inventor.
Meanwhile, Lyft continues to sharpen its main operations. With 26 million active riders and 235 million rides last quarter, it’s proving that scale isn’t everything.
The business is smaller than Uber, yes, but it’s more focused. Management has been cutting fat, emphasizing profitability, and, for the first time in its history, using excess cash for share buybacks.
Action: Start a position on pullbacks near $21–$22 for exposure to the rideshare rebound plus an autonomy kicker. Use $19 as your “I’m wrong” stop. |
Recent Momentum
Q2 was packed with signals that this company is no longer the underdog many assume:
Record rides: 235 million, up 14% year-over-year.
Record active riders: 26 million, also an all-time high.
Nine straight quarters of double-digit growth in rides.
For context, that kind of consistency in rider growth is rare in a platform that many investors had written off.
Even as Tesla talks robotaxis and Uber flexes global dominance, Lyft’s usage has never been higher.
The buyback story is equally important. Management spent $200 million repurchasing shares in Q2, shrinking the share count for the first time ever.
With a total $500 million program authorized, there’s still firepower left.
For a company trading at a fraction of its rival’s valuation, retiring stock at these levels is a high-ROI move that Wall Street tends to reward.
And then there’s the Waymo partnership. This isn’t Lyft’s first AV tie-up, it’s already working with May Mobility in Atlanta, but Waymo is the heavyweight.
With more than 10 million paid autonomous rides logged across Phoenix, LA, Austin, and beyond, Waymo has proven its tech at scale.
For Lyft, being the fleet manager for Nashville is a foot in the door that could expand to other markets.
The stock reaction tells the story. Shares jumped more than 10% on the news, pushing Lyft to a fresh 52-week high of $23.50.
That kind of price action is often the market saying, “hey, maybe this company isn’t roadkill after all.”
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The Setup You’re Actually Betting On
Buying Lyft here is less about a David vs. Goliath fight with Uber and more about three overlapping narratives:
Resilient demand: Even with all the AV hype, rideshare demand keeps hitting new highs. People still need rides now, not just in some future where every car drives itself.
Autonomy optionality: By partnering instead of building, Lyft has positioned itself to benefit whether autonomy arrives fast or slow. If it takes longer (as history suggests), Lyft keeps growing its core business. If it arrives sooner, Lyft is plugged into the infrastructure side.
Capital return shift: The move from “growth at all costs” to buybacks and efficiency is a narrative investors love. It signals maturity, discipline, and confidence in free cash flow.
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Valuation Check
Here’s where things get interesting.
At ~$23, Lyft trades around 8x free cash flow. Compare that to Uber at 23x free cash flow. Even if you think Uber deserves a premium, is Lyft really worth just one-third the multiple? The spread is extreme.
On an earnings basis, the P/E looks nosebleed high at 100x+. But EPS is a noisy number for rideshare, influenced by stock comp, investments, and accounting quirks.
Free cash flow tells the real story, and on that basis, Lyft looks cheap.
If Lyft’s FCF continues to expand as rider numbers grow and buybacks shrink the share base, valuation alone could rerate the stock 30–50% higher without any multiple expansion.
Add in the optionality of autonomy deals like Waymo, and you’ve got torque.
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Catalysts to Watch
Waymo rollout: Smooth operations in Nashville would validate Lyft’s role in the AV ecosystem.
Buyback execution: How aggressively does management use the remaining $300M authorization?
Rider metrics: Maintaining double-digit growth in rides and engagement.
Margin expansion: Any signs Lyft is capturing efficiencies and lifting take rates.
Autonomy headlines: Tesla delays or further Waymo expansions could shift sentiment quickly.
Risks
Competition: Uber still has the scale and global reach, which could pressure Lyft on pricing.
Regulation: Gig worker classification rules can shift labor costs overnight.
Autonomy disruption: If Waymo or Tesla leapfrog into multiple markets faster than expected, the value of Lyft’s aggregator role could shrink.
Valuation whiplash: EPS misses get punished hard, and retail-heavy ownership means volatility.
Execution risk: Buybacks are only accretive if cash flow holds up. If fuel costs, insurance, or incentives spike, FCF could compress.
Sentiment swings: Lyft’s story has flipped from dead money to hot trade before. If growth hiccups, expect double-digit down days.
Action Plan Recap
✅ Starter buy: $21–$22 for autonomy + rideshare exposure
✅ Add above $24 on continued buybacks and strong rider metrics
✅ Near-term target: $28–$30 if sentiment keeps improving
✅ Stretch target: $35+ if Waymo scales and buybacks keep shrinking float
✅ Stop near $19 to cap downside
✅ Monitor: Waymo rollout, buyback pace, and double-digit ride growth
Final Take
This is not about Lyft replacing Uber. It’s about a company once left for dead proving it can grow, generate free cash, and grab a seat at the autonomy table.
The Waymo partnership shows Lyft doesn’t need to own the tech to stay relevant.
It just needs to own the customer relationship and the fleet infrastructure, both of which it’s already good at.
Pair that with a record quarter for rides and a fresh capital return story, and you’ve got a setup that looks nothing like the declining platform narrative that’s dogged it for years.
Skepticism is still high, which is exactly why there’s upside.
If you want exposure to the autonomy trend without betting it all on Tesla or chasing Uber at 3x the valuation, Lyft is quietly offering an asymmetrical trade.
Think of it this way, if autonomy takes longer, Lyft keeps compounding riders and buying back stock.
If it comes faster, Lyft has a role in the rollout. Either way, investors finally have a reason to hail this ride again.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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