It’s not just luck behind this momentum shift
After underperforming for most of the past year, one casino giant is suddenly back in the spotlight. Strong earnings. Expanding margins. A global tourism revival. And yet, many investors still don’t believe the rally has legs.
That disconnect may be where the real opportunity lies.
Shares are up nearly 38% over the past 12 months but remain flat year to date. Institutional sentiment has been lukewarm, yet retail interest is building.
With powerful technical signals, a high-yield business model, and renewed growth in key markets, this gaming stock might be just getting started.
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Strategic Positioning
Las Vegas Sands [LVS] is one of the most dominant players in global gaming and leisure, with flagship integrated resorts in Macau and Singapore.
The company’s long-term strategy has always centered on premium hospitality and destination tourism, targeting high-value customers from across Asia.
But the recovery in China has been bumpy, and for much of the last two years, Macau was more a liability than an asset.
That may be changing. With stronger visitation trends, improving margins, and resilient performance at Marina Bay Sands, the business looks far healthier than it’s being priced.
This is not a pure “casino recovery” play. LVS is a unique hybrid: part luxury resort operator, part financial machine with nearly 80% gross margins.
Management continues to reinvest in its best-performing properties while returning capital through dividends and buybacks. In short, it's a steady compounder hiding inside a volatile ticker.
Poll: LVS just posted a big earnings beat. What’s your takeaway?
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Recent Momentum
Second quarter earnings provided a bullish catalyst. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.79 versus expectations of $0.55, a 44% beat.
Revenue climbed to $3.18 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase and well ahead of the $2.8 billion estimate.
The performance was led by Singapore’s Marina Bay Sands, which posted hold-adjusted EBITDA of $605 million, smashing Street forecasts.
Macau, while still below pre-COVID highs, showed clear signs of stabilization. Revenue across its Macau properties increased, and margin discipline helped offset some base mass softness.
Still, the market hasn’t fully rewarded the beat. Despite a 7.5% post-earnings bounce, LVS has seen mixed institutional inflows, with recent block trends turning negative.
That creates a window for forward-looking retail investors to get in ahead of broader momentum.
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Growth Outlook
Las Vegas Sands has a clear growth roadmap. Capital expenditures remain focused on property upgrades in Singapore and Macau.
Management is doubling down on high-end retail, entertainment, and suite offerings, betting on premium visitors returning in force.
Revenue is expected to reach $11.74 billion this year, up from $10.1 billion in 2024. EPS is forecast at $2.61, a 15% increase.
But beyond the numbers, this is a story of operating leverage: as revenue normalizes, margins expand rapidly due to the fixed-cost nature of LVS’s resorts.
With a dominant brand, limited competition in Singapore, and loyalty among Chinese tourists returning to Macau, the upside case is grounded in long-term fundamentals, not just reopening headlines.
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Action Plan: Income & Upside
LVS pays a quarterly dividend of $0.25, translating to a 1.89% yield.
It also has $2 billion authorized for share repurchases, which provides a meaningful return of capital while the stock trades at a discount to peer valuations.
This dual-pronged approach, yield plus buybacks, gives investors a way to participate in upside while getting paid to wait.
In a world where travel and leisure are increasingly bifurcated between budget and luxury, LVS is firmly in the latter camp.
Action Plan: Valuation Gap
At $53 per share, LVS trades at just over 26x forward earnings.
That might seem steep for a company with uneven EPS beats, but it understates the potential for margin expansion and operating leverage.
If the company hits its $2.61 EPS target and earns a 25x multiple, a modest assumption given its historical average, the stock could trade at $65 within 12 months.
Several analysts agree. The median price target sits near $58.29, and some bullish calls (like Stifel’s $57 and the Street-high $72.50) reflect a clear upside skew.
With sentiment still catching up to fundamentals, this may be an ideal entry point before broader re-rating.
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Risks
Like all hospitality names, LVS carries exposure to macro and geopolitical uncertainty:
Macau remains fragile: Consumer spending in China is still subdued, and regulatory pressure hasn’t gone away. A slowdown or policy change could hurt recovery.
Balance sheet watchlist: LVS has a current ratio below 0.6 and long-term debt significantly above working capital. While not distressed, its capital structure deserves monitoring.
Mixed institutional flows: Despite strong technicals and positive earnings, large investors remain hesitant. Block inflow ratios below 50% suggest caution among hedge funds and asset managers.
Volatile earnings: LVS has missed three of the last four EPS estimates. One strong quarter may not be enough to restore full Street confidence.
Action Plan: Technical Setup
The charts are speaking loud and clear. RSI and Williams %R are flashing bullish, and a MACD Golden Cross occurred on July 28.
Price action since then has confirmed a short-term uptrend, with shares consolidating just under $54. If the stock breaks above $56 on volume, it could trigger a technical rally toward $60 or higher.
Support sits near $50, which can act as a logical stop-loss zone for short-term traders. For longer-term investors, the risk/reward looks compelling anywhere under $55.
Final Take
Las Vegas Sands isn’t just a reopening story anymore. It’s a cash-generating, high-margin juggernaut with room to run, and the market hasn’t fully caught on.
With upside potential to the high $60s, a healthy dividend, and major technical tailwinds, LVS could quietly become one of the better leisure trades of 2025.
This is the kind of setup where smart money typically steps in. If you’re willing to hold through some chop, the odds may be stacked in your favor.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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