If Wall Street is a casino, this company is the person renting out the tables. It does not care who wins the trade.
It gets paid whenever someone clicks buy or sell.
This year, the stock has cooled off, but under the surface, volumes are hitting records, revenue keeps climbing, and the business looks like the same steady compounding story.

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Strategic Positioning
Tradeweb Markets (NASDAQ: TW) runs electronic markets for bonds, rates, mortgages, credit, and short-term cash.
Big banks, asset managers, hedge funds, and corporate treasurers use it to get trades done quickly and transparently instead of calling around.
Why that matters to you:
More bond trading moves online every year. Once traders get used to clicking, they rarely go back to the phone.
When there is drama about inflation, growth or tariffs, people trade more bonds to hedge or adjust. Tradeweb benefits from that extra activity.
It is not just one product. US Treasuries, European bonds, interest rate swaps, corporate bonds, money markets, and tools for corporate cash are all under the same roof. That spreads the risk and opens more ways to grow.
You are not betting on some new idea that might work one day. You are betting on a platform that is already embedded in how large investors trade fixed income.

Recent Momentum
2025 has been a great business but a moody stock story.
On the business side:
Average daily volume hit around 2.4 trillion dollars in June, up roughly 26% from a year earlier.
Quarterly revenue has been growing at double-digit rates, in the low to mid-20s.
Earnings per share have been trending higher as the company gets scale benefits from all that activity.
On the stock side, it is a different picture. TW ran up toward the 150s, then slid into the low 100s as growth cooled a bit and expectations came back to earth. Analysts still mostly rate it a Buy or Outperform, but many have trimmed their price targets rather than raise them.
So you have a healthy business, a softer story, and a stock that has already taken some punishment.

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What You Are Really Betting On
If you buy TW, you are basically saying:
Bond and rate trading will stay active because the world is messy.
More of that trading will keep moving to electronic platforms.
Tradeweb will capture a solid slice of that shift and keep adding new products and regions.
You are not betting on a one-time spike. You are betting on long-term habits.
Once a firm plugs into Tradeweb and trains its traders and systems on it, switching away is painful.
That stickiness is what can support years of compounding if the company keeps executing.

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Valuation Check
At about 110 dollars, TW is not a cheap stock. It trades on a premium earnings multiple because investors see it as a high-quality compounder with strong margins and recurring activity.
The good news:
Revenue growth has been very strong over the last couple of years.
The model is light on physical assets and heavy on software and data, which tends to support high margins.
It throws off solid cash that can fund buybacks, dividends, and smart acquisitions.
The catch:
Growth is slowing from wow to still good. That often compresses the multiple.
The business does feel more cyclical than a typical software name. When trading activity cools, growth can dip.
So you should see TW as quality at a fair price, not a hidden bargain. Your edge is time, not cleverness. If you can hold through cycles, the business may grow into today’s valuation.

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Action Plan
Here is a simple way to think about trading it:
Starter position: The low 100s to around 110 can work for a starter if you like the story and can live with some choppiness.
Add on proof, not vibes: Consider adding only after you see another quarter or two of solid volume growth, double-digit revenue growth, and stable or better margins. Let the numbers confirm the thesis.
Trim into spikes: If a big macro scare sends volumes and the stock surging, it can make sense to skim 10% to 20% and plan to buy back on a calmer pullback.
Position size: Think 0.5% to 2% of your stock portfolio. Enough to matter, not enough to ruin your month if bond markets suddenly go quiet.
You are trying to collect years of compounding, not nail the perfect tick.

Catalysts To Watch
A few things worth keeping on your radar:
Monthly and quarterly volume updates. You want to see bond and rate trading staying lively, not rolling over.
Earnings calls. Listen for comments on organic growth, not just boosts from volatile markets.
New products and features, especially for corporate treasurers and any AI tools that make trading smoother. The more reasons clients have to stay, the better.
Smart acquisitions that open up new regions or asset classes without distracting management.
If those boxes stay checked, the story is intact even if the stock wanders for a while.

Key Risks
No stock is a free lunch. With TW, you need to keep an eye on:
A slowdown in trading if markets calm down and investors get sleepy. That can hit growth for a few quarters.
Competitors, including other electronic platforms and big banks that want to keep more flow on their own systems.
A clear pause in market share gains. If rivals start taking share, the long-term thesis weakens.
Regulatory surprises that change how bonds trade. Long term, this might help, but short term, it can disrupt volumes.
If you start seeing volume stagnate and the company talks more about challenging conditions than new wins, that is your cue to recheck the thesis.

What A Win Looks Like
Realistically, a good outcome looks like this over the next few years:
Revenue grows at a steady double-digit clip most years.
Margins gently improve as more trading flows through the same platform.
Volumes hold up across different macro environments, not just during panic spikes.
The company keeps returning cash to shareholders while still investing in new tools and markets.
If that happens, today’s reset could end up looking like a normal pause in a longer uptrend rather than the end of the story.

Final Take
Tradeweb is not flashy, and it will never trend on social media. But when you zoom out, you are looking at a high-quality business that gets paid whenever serious money moves through bond and rate markets.
After a pullback from the highs, you are not getting a fire sale, but you might be getting a reasonable entry into a name that could quietly compound for years.
If you like the idea of owning the venue instead of trying to outguess every macro headline, TW may deserve a small, patient spot in your portfolio.

That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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