The market tossed this name in the penalty box after COVID demand cooled, but the platform didn’t vanish.
You just got a clean upside surprise on revenue and EPS, premarket buyers showed up, and there’s still a multibillion-dollar cash cushion to fund the next act.
If you like asymmetry, this is where you start paying attention.
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Strategic Positioning
Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) is more than one vaccine.
The core is a flexible mRNA engine that can spin up new shots fast, scale manufacturing, and iterate as strains or targets change.
Near-term, that means seasonal respiratory (flu, COVID, and combo).
Longer term, it’s oncology, rare disease, and other infectious targets where speed and personalization matter.
Why this matters now:
Multiple Shots On Goal. Flu, flu/COVID combo, RSV, and pediatric/at-risk updates can keep the commercial lights on while bigger bets mature.
Oncology Is The Prize. Personalized cancer vaccines alongside checkpoint inhibitors are in late-stage trials. It’s binary by nature, but the payoff can reset the entire narrative.
Platform Speed. Variant drift or new targets? mRNA lets you adjust in months, not years. That agility is a strategic edge.
Cash To Try Again. Roughly mid-single-digit billions in cash and investments gives runway to push pivotal programs without starving the base.
Recent Momentum
Earnings just surprised to the upside: revenue around the $1B mark, EPS loss far narrower than feared, and shares popped in early trading.
Management leaned into cost discipline, talked up share gains in a smaller COVID market, and reiterated a path to leaner operations.
It’s not victory cigars but we’re seeing a credible course correction.
Under the hood:
Beat Where It Counts. Revenue cleared consensus, and the EPS deficit shrank. That changes near-term sentiment.
Share Still There. Even with lower U.S. vaccination rates, the franchise retained meaningful market share.
Cost Work Showing. Opex is bending down, which is how you bridge to the next product cycle without tapping capital markets at rough terms.
Guide With Guardrails. Management laid out a reasonable revenue range for the year and a long-run aim to reach cash break-even later this decade.
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*The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Readers acknowledge that the authors are not engaging in the rendering of legal, financial, medical, or professional advice. The reader agrees that under no circumstances Boardwalk Flock, LLC is responsible for any losses, direct or indirect, which are incurred as a result of the use of the information contained within this, including, but not limited to, errors, omissions, or inaccuracies.
*Results may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Making money trading digital currencies takes time and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk.
The Setup You’re Actually Betting On
You’re not buying last year’s COVID print. You’re buying the chance that a broad mRNA toolkit turns into a durable, multi-product company.
Respiratory Keeps The Lights On. Flu, COVID, and combination shots can smooth the P&L and fund R&D.
Cancer Is The Upside. If late-stage oncology data show real benefit in melanoma or lung, the platform’s value jumps and partner economics improve.
Operating Muscle. Manufacturing, cold chain, and regulatory muscle aren’t one-and-done; they compound across programs.
Option Value Everywhere. The pipeline seeds multiple at-bats; you don’t need all of them to hit for the equity to work.
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Valuation Check
At ~mid-$20s, the equity is pricing in pain. Classic P/E won’t help during loss years, so think enterprise value vs. cash and price-to-sales on trough revenue:
Cash Cushion. Billions in cash vs. a single-digit billions market cap gives you tangible downside support.
Trough Sales Multiple. On a $1.6–$2.0B revenue run-rate, the price-to-sales isn’t crazy for a platform with late-stage shots.
What Moves It. Every credible readout or regulatory greenlight can re-rate the multiple quickly because expectations are low.
it’s not cheap if the pipeline fails, but you’re being paid to take thoughtfully sized risk.
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Catalysts To Watch
Respiratory Season Updates. Volumes, share, and pricing into winter matter for near-term cash flow.
Combo Flu/COVID Data. Clean immunogenicity and safety plus a clear launch path would tighten the story.
Oncology Readouts And Timelines. Interim or final Phase 3 signals in melanoma and lung are potential narrative flips.
Partnerships And Labels. New geographies, expanded age groups, or co-development deals de-risk the path.
Expense And Cash Trajectory. Opex trending down and cash holding steady extends runway and reduces dilution risk.
Risks (Name Them So They Don’t Own You)
Clinical Binary. Oncology trials can swing outcomes and valuation in a hurry.
Demand Drift. COVID and flu uptake could undershoot if guidance or access changes.
Competition. Big peers in vaccines and cancer won’t stand still.
Policy Noise. Eligibility, reimbursement, and public guidance can whipsaw seasonal demand.
Cash Burn. Miss the cost plan, and dilution risk creeps back.
Action Plan
Keep it pragmatic and sized to the story.
Starter Buy: $23–$26. Take a nibble near 52-week support rather than chasing green opens.
Earn The Add: Add above ~$28–$29 after a clean follow-through day or concrete catalyst (respiratory update, positive trial milestone).
Near-Term Waypoint: $32–$36 if sentiment stabilizes and winter volumes hold up.
Stretch Target (12–18 Months): $45–$55 if combo respiratory progresses and oncology timelines tighten with favorable signals.
Risk Line: Reassess below ~$22, especially if you also see softer seasonal uptake or slips in cost control.
Sizing: 0.5%–1.5% of equities. Let data earn increases; don’t let one trial decide your month.
What Would Change Our Mind
Two Misses In A Row. If uptake disappoints and guidance softens twice, the cash bridge looks shakier.
Negative Late-Stage Oncology Signal. A clear fail pushes out the multi-year upside case and compresses the multiple.
Unforced Cost Errors. If opex re-inflates without offsetting wins, the dilution clock ticks louder.
Final Take
This isn’t a victory lap. It’s a battered platform stock with fresh proof it can beat near-term expectations while buying time for bigger swings.
If you want smooth, look elsewhere. If you want real optionality with visible runway and low expectations, a small, rules-based position makes sense.
Start small near support, let catalysts earn your adds, and stay honest about what the data say.
That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.
Best Regards,
— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club
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