A beer giant braces for earnings headwinds, gold stumbles on easing tensions, a bank rides stress-test momentum, tobacco options ignite, an AI robotics stock faces dilution risks, and a medtech IPO tests investor appetite.

Remember that markets close early (at 1:00 ET) on Thursday and are closed on Friday for Independence Day. Enjoy the 4th and stay safe!

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Constellation Brands

Ticker: STZ | Market Cap: $28.5B | Catalyst: Earnings on Tuesday

Constellation Brands is one of the last big names closing out earnings season with its Q1 earnings, due Tuesday. Analysts expect a $3.33 EPS and $2.56B revenue, down 31% and 4% from last year. 

Beer (84% of sales) drives 40% margins, but tariffs and Trump’s immigration policies threaten demand. 

Analysts cut price targets (consensus $194.60), and a 60% post-earnings drop history (median 3.3%) looms. 

Jim Cramer warns of a miss, citing GLP-1 drugs and cannabis trends. At just under a $30B market cap, STZ’s premium focus may not shield it from macro pressures. Keep an eye on executive outlook, as cautious guidance may send shares plummeting.

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SPDR Gold Shares

Ticker: GLD | Total Assets: $101.7B | Catalyst: Gold Prices Dropping

Gold’s slide, with futures at a one-month low, pressures gold-backed ETFs (generally) and SPDR Gold Shares (specifically) as safe-haven demand wanes. 

De-escalation in Israel-Iran tensions and a U.S.-China trade framework have investors rotating into tech, despite a weak dollar. 

May’s inflation rate sits at just 2.3% and, despite rising slightly, ultimately offers no support. 

On the plus side, a pullback eases overbought conditions, setting the stage for a rebound in GLD if geopolitical or macro risks flare. Still trading near all-time highs despite commodity pricing dips, GLD’s upside moving forward looks limited unless trade talks break down. 

Contrarian traders might eye a dip-buy but monitor global headlines for reversal cues.

Morgan Stanley

Ticker: MS | Market Cap: $225.7B | Catalyst: Momentum and News

Morgan Stanley is riding a multi-day rally, closing 6% higher last week with 11.4% YTD gains, outpacing markets. A slew of buy ratings sparked the late-June surge as analysts cite a thriving business model and easing bank capital rules. 

The Fed’s 2025 stress test showed MS and peers resilient, with a milder recession scenario cutting CET1 ratios by 1.8 points. A proposed two-year test average could further stabilize capital needs. 

With buyback and dividend plans due soon, MS’s massive market cap and momentum suggest upside, though regulatory shifts could temper gains.

Tensions between the U.S. and China are rewriting the rules of the AI economy — and Wall Street is already adjusting.

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British American Tobacco

Ticker: BTI | Market Cap: $102.9B  | Catalyst: Unusual Options Activity

British American Tobacco saw options volume spike 10x its 30-day average, with 19 active call options signaling bullish bets. A £1.1B share buyback extension, funded by an ITC stake sale, aims to cut share capital by December 2025. 

Trading in the mid-$40s, BTI’s smokeless products and traditional brands like Lucky Strike position it for steady demand. 

The buyback and options frenzy suggest near-term upside, but tobacco’s regulatory risks and flat consumer spending could cap gains. 

Aggressive traders might chase the momentum, but monitor September expirations (the bulk of the bullish expiry dates) for profit-taking or sentiment shifts.

Cyngn

Ticker: CYN | Market Cap: $28.6M  | Catalyst: Overbought at 82.85 RSI

Cyngn is overbought at 82.85 RSI after following Nvidia’s Isaac platform nod, driving its meteoric spike over the past week (+300% since the 26th). 

A fresh $17.2M raise (2.3M shares) fuels DriveMod autonomous vehicle growth, but dilution and a $7.6M Q1 loss raise flags. Despite $47,200 Q1 revenue (up from $5,500), long-term upside from logistics automation is clouded by short-term selling pressure. 

With a still-modest market cap, CYN’s momentum feels frothy. Smart traders might lock in gains and wait for a pullback before re-entering this speculative AI robotics play.

CapsoVision

Ticker: CV | Catalyst: IPO on Tuesday

CapsoVision’s Tuesday IPO seeks $27.6M at a $241.9M valuation. The CapsoCam Plus, a GI imaging capsule, drives $11.7M in 2024 revenue (up 20.5%), yet high losses ($19.9M) and negative free cash flow ($21.2M) persist. 

An 18x EV/Revenue multiple dwarfs peers, and single-product reliance adds risk. 

Despite AI-enhanced diagnostics and a $5.1B GI market, slowing growth and low cash ($4.4M) mean that this IPO may be a bit risky despite the hot initial listing market. 

Macro tailwinds like increased rates of GI issues offer hope, but savvy investors should avoid this overpriced debut until financials stabilize. 

From a beer stock’s earnings gauntlet to gold’s safe-haven stumble, a bank’s stress-test tailwind, tobacco’s options surge, an AI robotics sell-off signal, and a medtech IPO’s risky debut, this week promises plenty of action ahead despite the shortened trading week.

That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.

Best Regards,

— Jeremy Flint
Elite Trade Club

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